[1]赵 姜,吴 芮,吴敬学.中国西瓜价格短期预测分析[J].北方园艺,2015,39(23):213-216.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201523058]
　ZHAO Jiang,WU Rui,WU Jingxue.Short-term Forecasting of Watermelon Price in China[J].Northern Horticulture,2015,39(23):213-216.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201523058]
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中国西瓜价格短期预测分析

《北方园艺》[ISSN:1001-0009/CN:23-1247/S] 卷: 第39卷 期数: 2015年23 页码: 213-216 栏目: 出版日期: 2015-12-15
Title:
Short-term Forecasting of Watermelon Price in China
作者:
赵 姜1; 吴 芮2; 吴敬学3
（1.北京市农林科学院 农业科技信息研究所，北京100097；2.California State University(East Bay),California，United States of America 94542；3.中国农业科学院 农业经济与发展研究所，北京 100081）
Author(s):
ZHAO Jiang1; WU Rui2; WU Jingxue3
(1.Institute of Agricultural Scientech Information，Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences，Beijing 100097；2.California State University(East Bay)，California,United States of America 94542；3.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development，Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Beijing 100081)
关键词:
西瓜; 价格; 预测
Keywords:
watermelon; price; forecasting
DOI:
10.11937/bfyy.201523058
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
通过对2000年1月至2014年10月的中国西瓜月度批发价格数据进行分析，建立了基于时间序列的价格预测模型。结果表明：SARIMA模型和季节因子分离模型都能较好地模拟国内西瓜价格波动，而组合模型对单一模型的预测精度又有一定提高；在此基础上对2014年11月至2015年12月的西瓜月度批发价格进行了预测分析。
Abstract:
The paper established a price forecasting model based on time series through the analysis on monthly wholesale prices of watermelon in China from January 2000 to October 2014.The results indicated that both ARIMA models and seasonal factors separate models could simulate the watermelon price effectively，and the combined model had a higher precision of prediction than a single model.Then，the monthly wholesale price of watermelon from November 2014 to December 2015 was forecasted on the base of the combined model.

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备注/Memo

第一作者简介：赵姜（1985-），女，博士，助理研究员，研究方向为农业经济管理。E-mail：zhaojiang821@163.com.

更新日期/Last Update: 2016-01-18