ZHAO Zeyang,XIANG Hua,QIAO Lijuan,et al.Empirical Analysis on the Fluctuation Characteristics of Pepper Price in China[J].Northern Horticulture,2019,43(19):125-129.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20190822]
我国辣椒价格波动特征实证分析
- Title:
- Empirical Analysis on the Fluctuation Characteristics of Pepper Price in China
- Keywords:
- pepper price; fluctuation characteristic; seasonal; periodic
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 辣椒是我国重要的特色蔬菜作物，价格波动对辣椒产业发展有重大影响，为解释辣椒价格波动原因，以2004—2018年全国辣椒月度价格为研究对象，利用描述性统计法、X12季节调整模型、H-P滤波法对辣椒价格波动进行分解研究。结果表明：辣椒具有明显的季节性、周期性，同时每个周期时间跨度不一，波动幅度不同。分析辣椒价格波动原因，把握辣椒价格变化规律，可为我国辣椒产业发展提供可行建议。
- Abstract:
- Pepper is an important vegetable crop in China.The price fluctuation has a significant impact on the development of the pepper industry.To explain the fluctuation of pepper price,the monthly price of the national pepper in 2004—2018 is used as the research object,descriptive statistics,X12 seasonal adjustment model,the H-P filtering method are used to decompose the price fluctuation of pepper.The results showed that the pepper had obvious seasonality and periodicity,and the time span of each cycle was different,and the fluctuation range was different.The causes of pepper price fluctuations,grasp the changing rules of pepper prices were analyzed to provide feasible suggestions for the development of Chinese pepper industry.
参考文献/References:
[1]赵泽阳,张娟娟,乔立娟,等.2018年我国辣椒价格波动特征分析[J].中国蔬菜,2019(8):5-8.[2]苑甜甜,王丽丽,赵邦宏,等.我国大蒜价格波动特征的实证分析[J].北方园艺,2018(20):185-190.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：赵泽阳(1993-)，男，硕士研究生，研究方向为农业科技组织与服务。E-mail:1009923776@qq.com.基金项目：国家特色蔬菜产业技术体系建设专项资助项目（CARS-24-08B）；河北省现代农业产业技术体系蔬菜产业经济与发展研究资助项目（HBCT2018030301）；河北省科技厅软科学资助项目（19457518D）。收稿日期：2019-04-28