YUANTiantian,WANGLili,ZHAOBanghong,et al.EmpiricalAnalysisofPriceFluctuationofGarlicinChina[J].Northern Horticulture,2018,42(20):185-190.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20180624]
我国大蒜价格波动特征的实证分析
- Title:
- EmpiricalAnalysisofPriceFluctuationofGarlicinChina
- Keywords:
- priceofgarlic; wavecharacteristics; seasonalfluctuations; irregularfluctuations; long-termtrends; fluctuationcycle
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 近年来，大蒜价格剧烈波动使大蒜产业链上各个经营主体深受影响，为了揭示大蒜价格本身深层次的波动原因，以2004—2017年全国蒜头月度批发价格为研究对象，采用X-12季节调整模型和H-P滤波法将大蒜价格分解为不同波动成分。结果表明：大蒜价格季节性波动特征显著，不规则波动特征未呈现明显的增长或下降的态势，季节波动和不规则波动越来越趋于稳定；大蒜价格长期内呈波浪形上升的趋势，每个波动周期时间跨度长短不一，波动的幅度也不一样，不同周期影响因素也不相同。
- Abstract:
- Inrecentyears,thegarlicpricevolatilitymakevariousoperatorsaffectedongarlicindustrychain,inordertorevealthedeepwavegarlicpriceitself,taking2004—2017nationalmonthlywholesalepriceofgarlicastheresearchobject,theX-12seasonaladjustmentmodelandH-Pfilteringmethodwereusedtodecomposethegarlicpriceintodifferentfluctuationcomponentsofgarlicprice.Thestudyshowedthatgarlicpriceseasonalfluctuationscharacteristicswassignificant,irregularwavecharacteristicshadnopresentstheobviousgrowthordeclinetrend,seasonalfluctuationandirregularwavewasmoreandmorestable.Inthelongterm,garlicpricestendedtoriseinwaves,andeachfluctuationcyclewasdifferentinlengthandduration,andtherangeoffluctuationwasdifferent,anddifferentcyclicalfactorswerenotthesame.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：苑甜甜（1990-），女，硕士，研究方向为产业经济理论与政策。E-mail：yuantiantian921@163.com.责任作者：赵邦宏（1963-），男，博士，教授，研究方向为农业产业经济理论与政策。E-mail：hbnd123@163.com.基金项目：国家特色蔬菜产业体系产业经济岗资助项目（CARS-24-08B）；2017年河北省研究生创新资助项目（CXZZSS2017064,CXZZBS2017061）。收稿日期：2018-04-24