LI Jin,FENG Xian,HAN Rui-juan.Vegetable Consumptions Condition and Trend Prediction of Urban Households in Beijing[J].Northern Horticulture,2015,39(06):197-202.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201506054]
北京市城镇居民蔬菜消费现状及趋势预测
- Title:
- Vegetable Consumptions Condition and Trend Prediction of Urban Households in Beijing
- Keywords:
- Beijing; vegetable; consumption; prediction
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 在新型城镇化及居民日益增长的生活水平背景下,开展蔬菜消费特点、消费需求影响以及消费预测的研究具有一定意义。现通过分析北京城镇居民蔬菜消费现状,总结归纳了北京城镇居民蔬菜消费特点,并结合ELES模型与时间序列预测模型,对蔬菜消费系统以及消费需求进行了深入分析和展望,得出相应结论。
- Abstract:
- With the living standards improving,carrying out the study of vegetable consumption characteristics,consumption demand effects and consumption prediction is of significance under the new pattern urbanization.This paper firstly analyzed the vegetables consumption condition of Beijing urban residents,and then summarized the consumption characteristics.After that,ELES model and time series model were used in this paper to predict the trend of vegetable consumption in Beijing.And finally some conclusions were drawn from the empirical study.
参考文献/References:
[1]陈月英.我国居民蔬菜消费需求现状及前景[J].中国食物与营养,2005(7):38-39. [2]朱爱萍,周应恒.我国蔬菜市场需求分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2001(3):26-31. [3]陈云,顾海英.上海市城乡居民蔬菜消费结构变化及其影响因素探析[J].上海农业学报,2006,22(3):95-98. [4]孙倩,穆月英.蔬菜价格变动、影响因素及价格预测——以北京市批发市场为例[J].中国蔬菜,2011(9):9-14. [5]孙倩,穆月英.我国蔬菜价格波动、原因及影响因素[J].农村金融研究,2011(8):21-26. [6]胡冰川.2010年我国蔬菜市场分析及2011年展望[J].农业展望,2011,7(1):17-19. [7]张纯.日本的蔬菜消费特征及政府引导措施[J].科技信息,2009(16):26-27. [8]刘亚钊,王秀清.日本生鲜蔬菜进口市场及其需求弹性分析[J].农业技术经济,2007(2):31-36. [9]孙小丽,陆迁.蔬菜价格波动对城镇居民福利的影响及对策研究[J].青海社会科学,2012(3):28-32. [10]李锁平,王利农.我国蔬菜供给对价格的反应程度分析[J].农业技术经济,2006(5):59-62. [11]邵民智.上海城市居民食品消费结构变化的灰色关联分析[J].运筹与管理,2014,23(1):244-248. [12]张峭,王克.中国蔬菜消费现状分析与预测[J].农业展望,2006(10):28-31.
相似文献/References:
[1]朱亮,康总江,魏书军,等.2012年北京各区县不同寄主上二斑叶螨发生调查[J].北方园艺,2013,37(04):120.
[2]刘少梅,王丽娟,切岩祥和,等.富硒蔬菜的研究进展[J].北方园艺,2014,38(11):177.
LIU Shao-mei,WANG Li-juan,KIRIIWA Yoshikazu,et al.Research Advances of Selenium-enriched Vegetable[J].Northern Horticulture,2014,38(06):177.
[3]徐学军,魏桂琴,贠文俊,等.兰州市高寒二阴地区蔬菜产业现状分析及发展对策研究[J].北方园艺,2014,38(10):163.
XU Xue-jun,WEI Gui-qin,YUN Wen-jun,et al.Vegetable Industry Situation Analysis and Development Strategies in Higher-cold and Cloudy-humid Region in Lanzhou[J].Northern Horticulture,2014,38(06):163.
[4]周 雷,王 玲,雷小涛,等.江汉平原蔬菜地频振灯下昆虫群落多样性研究[J].北方园艺,2013,37(22):119.
ZHOU Lei,WANG Ling,LEI Xiao-tao,et al.Study on the Diversity of Insect Trapped with Trapping Lamp in Vegetable Fields in Jianghan Plain[J].Northern Horticulture,2013,37(06):119.
[5]朱庆松,刘秀青.设施蔬菜二氧化碳施肥技术[J].北方园艺,2013,37(17):55.
ZHU Qing-song,LIU Xiu-qing.Carbondioxide Fertilization Technique of Facilities Vegetables[J].Northern Horticulture,2013,37(06):55.
[6]韩勇.高原春冬小麦复种蔬菜技术[J].北方园艺,2014,38(06):44.
HAN Yong.Techniques of Spring and Winter Wheat Multiple Cropping Vegetables in Plateau[J].Northern Horticulture,2014,38(06):44.
[7]张海霞,陈青奇,徐晶,等.超高效液相色谱-串联质谱检测蔬菜中氨基甲酸酯类农药残留[J].北方园艺,2014,38(06):125.
ZHANG Hai-xia,CHEN Qing-qi,XU Jing,et al.The Inspection of UPLC-MS/MS for the Residue of Carbamate Pesticides in Vegetable[J].Northern Horticulture,2014,38(06):125.
[8]梁巧玲,杨晖,赵鹂.丽水市郊蔬菜重金属含量及健康风险分析[J].北方园艺,2013,37(12):21.
LIANG Qiao-ling,YANG Hui,ZHAO Li.Analysis of Heavy Metal Contents in Vegetables of Lishui Suburb and the Health Hazard[J].Northern Horticulture,2013,37(06):21.
[9]李强.宁夏干旱风沙区日光温室不同茬次黄瓜及油菜周年丰产栽培技术[J].北方园艺,2013,37(07):40.
[J].Northern Horticulture,2013,37(06):40.
[10]马桂花.昆虫性信息素防治甘蓝害虫的应用效果[J].北方园艺,2013,37(23):133.
MA Gui-hua.Application Effect of Insect Sex Pheromone in Control of Cabbage Pests[J].Northern Horticulture,2013,37(06):133.
[11]张标,张领先,傅泽田,等.基于季节指数的蔬菜价格变动趋势分析及预测[J].北方园艺,2017,41(18):185.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20170403]
ZHANG Biao,ZHANG Lingxian,FU Zetian,et al.Analysis and Forecast of Vegetable Price Trend Based on Seasonal Index[J].Northern Horticulture,2017,41(06):185.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20170403]
备注/Memo
第一作者简介:李瑾(1978-),女,博士,副研究员,研究方向为农业经济与政策。E-mail:lij@nercita.org.cn. 责任作者:冯献(1986-),女,博士,助理研究员,研究方向为农业经济理论与政策。E-mail:fengxian_caas@163.com. 基金项目:北京市农林科学院科技创新能力建设专项资助项目(KJCX20140501)。