ZHAO Mengyao,ZHAO Junyan,ZHANG Ze,et al.Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Table Grape in China[J].Northern Horticulture,2024,(18):136-144.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20240266]
我国鲜食葡萄价格波动特征及影响因素研究
- Title:
- Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Table Grape in China
- 文章编号:
- 1001-0009(2024)18-0136-09
- 关键词:
- 葡萄价格; 波动特征; X12 季节调整模型; H-P 滤波法
- 分类号:
- F 326.13
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 葡萄在全球的需求不断增加,中国作为全球最大的鲜食葡萄供应商,价格的波动性也日益显著,这给葡萄产业带来了极大的挑战。为更好地把握葡萄市场价格的波动特征及其影响因素,选取 2014 年 1 月至 2023 年 10 月我国葡萄价格数据,运用 Census X12 季节性变化模型以及 H-P 滤波法,深入探讨葡萄价格波动的原因以及可能的影响,以期为葡萄产业的健康发展注入新活力。结果表明:葡萄价格的季节性、周期性波动在逐渐趋缓;成本上升与需求增加推动价格趋势性上涨;自然灾害、国家政策等因素导致葡萄价格不规则波动。对此,需通过技术进步推进葡萄生产供给稳定,建立健全葡萄全产业链预警机制,完善特色农业保险制度,大力推进葡萄产业融合发展。
- Abstract:
- The increasing demand for grapes in the world,China as the world′s largest table grape supplier,price volatility is also increasingly significant,which brings great challenges to the grape industry.In order to better grasp the fluctuation characteristics of grape market price and its influencing factors,the grape price data of China from January 2014 to October 2023 were selected,and the Census X12 seasonal change model and H-P filtering method were used to further explore the causes and possible impacts of grape price fluctuations,in order to inject new vitality into the healthy development of grape industry.The results showed that the seasonal and cyclical fluctuations of grape prices were gradually slowing down.Rising costs and increasing demand drive up the price trend;natural disasters,national policies and other factors lead to irregular fluctuations in grape prices.To this end,it was necessary to promote the stability of grape production and supply through technological progress,establish and improve the whole grape industry chain early warning mechanism,improve the characteristic agricultural insurance system,vigorously promote the integrated development of the grape industry.
参考文献/References:
[1]刘俊,晁无疾,亓桂梅,等.蓬勃发展的中国葡萄产业[J].中外葡萄与葡萄酒,2020(1):1-8.[2]WU Z,XIA F,ZHOU S,et al.A method for identifying grape stems using keypoints[J].Computers and Electronics in Agriculture,2023,209:107825.[3]郭秋生,韩晓媛.我国水果价格波动特征及横向溢出效应研究:以梨、苹果和葡萄为例[J].价格理论与实践,2023(3):103-107.[4]周绩宏,牛桂草,王晓,等.河北省鸭梨价格波动特征的实证分析[J].北方园艺,2023(3):138-144.[5]王海松,张晓薇,谭琳元,等.我国鲜苹果出口价格波动特征及趋势预测分析[J].中国果树,2023(9):122-127.[6]白丽,王孟伟,周悦,等.我国辛辣类蔬菜价格波动特征研究[J].北方园艺,2023(24):138-147.[7]张震,刘学瑜.我国设施农业发展现状与对策[J].农业经济问题,2015,36(5):64-70,111.[8]李小红,李运景,马晓青,等.我国葡萄产业发展现状与展望[J].中国南方果树,2021,50(5):161-166.[9]MU W S,GONG S Q,STANKOVSKI S,et al.WebGIS-based suitability evaluation system for Chinese table grape production[J].Computers and Electronics in Agriculture,2019,165:104945.[10]徐建坤,张旺,肖婧,等.红提葡萄中酵母菌多样性的研究[J].中国酿造,2019,38(3):40-45.[11]王聪聪,王玉芹,孙源,等.河北省苹果价格波动特征分析[J].中国果树,2020(6):126-129.[12]刘妮雅,王慧军.基于HP滤波法的新疆枣果价格波动特征[J].新疆农业科学,2018,55(12):2320-2330.[13]吕建兴,祁春节.中国水果收购价格波动性研究:以苹果、香蕉和橙子为例[J].林业经济问题,2012,32(6):528-534.[14]李辉尚,马娟娟,沈辰,等.我国马铃薯价格波动规律研究:基于X-12和H-P滤波法的实证分析[J].中国蔬菜,2017(2):60-66.[15]邱书钦.我国大蒜价格波动周期和特征分析[J].统计与决策,2013,29(15):97-100.[16]连恒博,李垚,宗义湘,等.中国大葱价格波动特征的实证分析[J].北方园艺,2020(4):153-158.[17]王民乐,刘源,张丽英,等.冀北地区设施甜樱桃套作羊肚菌栽培技术[J].北方园艺,2022(6):151-154.[18]张祎彤,苏柳方,冯晓龙,等.成本收益视角下的秸秆还田效益分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2022,32(3):169-176.[19]卞靖,陈曦.中国蔬菜价格波动的特征、原因及调控思路研究[J].宏观经济研究,2020(4):142-152.[20]MIZIK T.How can proximal sensors help decision-making in grape production?[J].Heliyon,2023,9(5):e16322.[21]王哲捷,徐十,王永平.贵州水果产业发展现状及高质量发展对策[J].北方园艺,2022(6):137-144.[22]张清津.基于交易成本的农产品市场失灵与三产融合[J].理论学刊,2023(3):87-95.
相似文献/References:
[1]郭晶鹏,毛克彪,赵映慧,等.我国蔬菜价格研究进展[J].北方园艺,2016,40(23):180.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201623042]
GUO Jingpeng,MAO Kebiao,ZHAO Yinghui,et al.Review of Vegetable Prices of ChinaGUO[J].Northern Horticulture,2016,40(18):180.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201623042]
[2]苑甜甜,王丽丽,赵邦宏,等.我国大蒜价格波动特征的实证分析[J].北方园艺,2018,42(20):185.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20180624]
YUANTiantian,WANGLili,ZHAOBanghong,et al.EmpiricalAnalysisofPriceFluctuationofGarlicinChina[J].Northern Horticulture,2018,42(18):185.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20180624]
[3]赵泽阳,向华,乔立娟,等.我国辣椒价格波动特征实证分析[J].北方园艺,2019,43(19):125.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20190822]
ZHAO Zeyang,XIANG Hua,QIAO Lijuan,et al.Empirical Analysis on the Fluctuation Characteristics of Pepper Price in China[J].Northern Horticulture,2019,43(18):125.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20190822]
[4]连恒博,李垚,宗义湘,等.中国大葱价格波动特征的实证分析[J].北方园艺,2020,44(04):153.
LIAN Hengbo,LI Yao,ZONG Yixiang,et al.Empirical Analysis of Price Fluctuation Characteristics of Allium fistulosum in China[J].Northern Horticulture,2020,44(18):153.
[5]李墨卿,郑素月,郭金英.三明市食用菌价格波动特征及影响因素分析[J].北方园艺,2021,(21):156.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20211572]
LI Moqing,ZHENG Suyue,GUO Jinying.Analysis on the Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Edible Fungus Price Fluctuation in Sanming City[J].Northern Horticulture,2021,(18):156.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20211572]
[6]周绩宏,牛桂草,王晓,等.河北省鸭梨价格波动特征的实证分析[J].北方园艺,2023,(03):138.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20222092]
ZHOU Jihong,NIU Guicao,WANG Xiao,et al.Empirical Analysis on the Price Fluctuation Characteristics ofYali Pear in Hebei Province[J].Northern Horticulture,2023,(18):138.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20222092]
备注/Memo
第一作者简介:赵梦瑶(1999-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为葡萄产业经济。E-mail:1281810782@qq.com.责任作者:赵君彦(1979-),女,博士,教授,现主要从事农村产业经济及农村金融与保险等研究工作。E-mail:zhaojy1015@163.com.基金项目:河北省现代农业产业体系葡萄创新团队产业经济岗位资助项目(HBCT2023150301)。收稿日期:2024-01-18