OUYANG Mengzhen,XU Tingting,SHAO Qiang,et al.Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics,Correlation and Prophet Model Fitting of Leafy Vegetables in Henan Province[J].Northern Horticulture,2026,(19):135-142.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20261130]
河南叶类蔬菜价格波动特征、相关性及Prophet模型拟合研究
- Title:
- Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics,Correlation and Prophet Model Fitting of Leafy Vegetables in Henan Province
- 文章编号:
- 1001-0009(2026)19-0135-08
- 关键词:
- 蔬菜; 叶类; 价格走势; Prophet 模型; 相关性
- Keywords:
- vegetables; condiments; price tendency; Prophet model; correlation
- 分类号:
- F326.13
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 河南省作为全国重要的蔬菜生产基地，叶类蔬菜产业在市场供应和区域经济中占据重要地位。为探究河南叶类蔬菜市场价格波动规律及品种间相关性，研究采用 2021年11月至2024年11月的12种主要叶类蔬菜市场价格数据，开展系统性分析，并引入Prophet模型对菠菜价格进行拟合研究。结果表明：大部分叶类蔬菜价格呈现“冬春季易拉高，夏秋季多低迷”的趋势。同时，不同叶类蔬菜品种间价格存在显著或极显著的正相关关系，部分叶菜类蔬菜价格对气温和湿度环境因素呈高敏感性。这与其生长习性、种植模式、消费场景的共性及外部市场因素密切相关。Prophet 模型对菠菜价格的拟合效果良好，能准确捕捉菠菜价格的季节性波动及趋势特征。该研究能为生产者优化种植、政府调控市场提供参考，助力河南叶类蔬菜产业健康稳定发展。
- Abstract:
- As a nationally pivotal vegetable production base,Henan Province plays a critical role in ensuring market supply and driving regional economic development within the leafy vegetable industry.We systematically analyzed the fluctuation patterns of market prices for leafy vegetables in Henan Province and examines inter-varietal price correlations,based on monthly market price data for 12 major leafy vegetable varieties spanning November 2021 to November 2024.Furthermore,the Prophet time-series forecasting model was employed to fit and characterize the temporal dynamics of spinach price fluctuations.The research findings indicated that the prices of most leafy vegetables generally ‘rise during winter and spring but remain low in summer and autumn’.Furthermore,there existed significant or highly significant positive correlations between the prices of various leafy vegetable types.Some leafy vegetables exhibited high sensitivity to environmental factors such as temperature and humidity.These patterns were closely linked to shared characteristics in growth habits,planting methods,consumption contexts,and external market influences.The Prophet model demonstrates a good fit for spinach prices,accurately capturing the seasonal fluctuations and trend characteristics.This study provides a reference for producers to optimize cultivation and for governments to regulate markets,thereby supporting the healthy and stable development of the leafy vegetable industry in Henan Province.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：欧阳梦真（1996-），女，硕士，研究实习员，现主要从事蔬菜栽培等研究工作。E-mai:359636899@qq.com.责任作者：万秀娟（1982-），女，博士，副研究员，现主要从事蔬菜栽培等研究工作。E-mail:hnwanxiujuan@163.com.基金项目：国家大宗蔬菜产业技术体系资助项目（CARS-23）;河南省科技攻关资助项目（252102110196）。收稿日期：2026-04-08