WEN Changcun,SUN Yuzhu,WU Jingxue.Empirical Research on Impact of Farmer′s Endowments，Risk Preference on Planting Decisions of Watermelon Farmers[J].Northern Horticulture,2017,41(02):196-201.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201702047]
农户禀赋、风险偏好对农户西瓜生产决策行为影响的实证分析
- Title:
- Empirical Research on Impact of Farmer′s Endowments，Risk Preference on Planting Decisions of Watermelon Farmers
- 关键词:
- 农户禀赋; 风险偏好; 生产决策; 西瓜; 带罚函数的二次Logistic模型
- Keywords:
- farmer′s endowments; risk preference; planting decisions; watermelon; penalized Logistic model
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 基于西瓜农户实地调研数据，利用带罚函数的二项Logistic模型，对瓜农扩大西瓜种植决策的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明：农户西瓜种植决策行为很大程度上取决于农户的风险态度，农户风险偏好水平越高，扩大种植的可能性越高；农户禀赋因素中，户主受教育年限、家庭人口规模、西瓜收入占家庭总收入的比重、参加培训、市场能力对农户扩大西瓜种植决策有显著正向影响。户主年龄、上期播种面积对农户扩大西瓜种植决策有显著负向影响。其中户主年龄、收入占比、市场能力对农户种植决策的边际影响均在20%以上；市场因素对农户扩大西瓜种植具有正向激励作用。基于此，提出设立政策性的特色农业保险产品分散西瓜生产风险，研发和推广西瓜简约化栽培技术、机械技术等来缓解劳动力老龄化带来的负面影响等政策建议。
- Abstract:
- Based on survey data collected from watermelon farmers in Hubei Province，this study analyzed watermelon farmer′s motivation，willingness to expand the production scale and its restriction factor by using the descriptive statistical.A penalized binary logistic regression model was applied to reveal the determinants influential factors of planting decision-making behavior of watermelon farmers.The main conclusions were as follows:1)the interviewed farmers showed their willingness to expand production scale，and the main restriction factors were workforce shortages，barriers to use new techniques of pest control and sharp fluctuations in market price of watermelon.2) The farmer′s decision with respect to expand watermelon scale was influenced differently by risk preference，farmer′s endowments，market factors.On the marginal effects of variables that household age，watermelon income share，marketing capability were the most important influential factors on planting decision-making (its marginal effect were more than 20%).Accordingly suggestions such as agricultural subsidy policy and crop insurance are proposed and to promote the demonstration of new technologies to ease the labor force were proposed.
参考文献/References:
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：文长存（1987-），女，土家族，湖北巴东人，博士研究生，研究方向为种植业经济。E-mail：wenchangcun2008@163.com.责任作者：吴敬学（1958-），男，辽宁喀左人，博士，研究员，现主要从事农业技术进步理论与方法等研究工作。E-mail：wujingxue@caas.cn.基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（71273263）；国家西甜瓜产业技术体系建设专项资助项目（CARS-26-23）；中国农业科学院科技创新工程资助项目（ASTIP-IAED-2015-05）。