MA Chaoxi,XIAO Xingzhong,LI Bing,et al.Establishment of Seedling Overwintering Prediction Model for Seed Production of Chinese Cabbage[J].Northern Horticulture,2024,(1):16-23.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20232921]
大白菜制种幼苗越冬预测模型的建立
- Title:
- Establishment of Seedling Overwintering Prediction Model for Seed Production of Chinese Cabbage
- 文章编号:
- 1001-0009(2024)01-0016-08
- Keywords:
- Chinese cabbage; overwintering; morphological character; prediction model; grey correlation degree
- 分类号:
- S 634.1
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 以20份越冬大白菜幼苗为试材，采用灰色关联度分析法，对大白菜幼苗形态特征进行分析并筛选适宜的形态特征指标，以期为制种大白菜幼苗越冬形态特征建立预测模型。结果表明：“冬前”大白菜幼苗的地上鲜质量、单株叶面积、叶片数、根茎粗、侧根数等形态特征与越冬率高度关联（关联系数分别为0.798 1、0.750 6、0.735 2、0.707 4、0.676 9），各个指标充分反映了幼苗越冬能力。以所选“冬前”形态指标相对值为自变量，构建预测模型Y=68.885＋0.963X1-0.011X2-0.168X3＋10.983X5＋0.116X7。经回代检验，模型准确率超过97.00%。利用均方根误差（1.405 3）和相对误差（0.014 8）对模型评价，其预测值高度精确，能够有效地预测制种大白菜幼苗越冬率。综合各项指标表明，利用灰色关联分析法建立的模型非常可靠，能够用于露地大白菜幼苗越冬率预测模型的建立，为基层技术人员提供有力的技术参考依据。
- Abstract:
- Taking 20 overwintering Chinese cabbage seedlings as experimental materials,the grey correlation analysis method was used to analyze the morphological characteristics of Chinese cabbage seedlings and select suitable morphological characteristic indicators,in order to establish a prediction model for the overwintering morphological characteristics of Chinese cabbage seedlings in seed production.The results showed that the morphological characteristics of Chinese cabbage seedlings before winter，such as above-ground fresh weight，leaf area per plant，leaf number，rhizome thickness，and lateral root number，were highly correlated with the overwintering rate with the correlation coefficients of 0.798 1，0.750 6，0.735 2，0.707 4，and 0.676 9，respectively)，and all indicators fully reflected the overwintering ability of the seedlings.Using the relative value of the selected ‘pre winter’ morphological indicator as the independent variable，we constructed a prediction model Y=68.885+0.963X1-0.011X2-0.168X3＋10.983X5＋0.116X7.Through back testing，the accuracy rate of the model was more than 97.00%.Then we used the root mean square error (1.405 3) and relative error (0.014 8) to evaluate the model，and its predicted values were highly accurate，which could effectively predict the overwintering rate of Chinese cabbage seedlings in seed production.Overall，establishing the model using the grey correlation analysis method was reliable enough and could be used to predict the overwintering rate of Chinese cabbage seedlings in the open field，which provided strong reference for agricultural sci-tech staff.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：马朝喜（1976-），男，本科，助理研究员，现主要从事蔬菜高效栽培与制种技术等研究工作。E-mail：372954481@qq.com.责任作者：原玉香(1970-)，女，博士，研究员，现主要从事蔬菜生物技术及遗传育种等研究工作。E-mail：yuxiangyuan126@126.com.基金项目：河南省大宗蔬菜产业技术体系资助项目(S2010-03)；河南省农业科学院“四优四化”科技支撑行动计划资助项目（SYSH2022010，SYSH2023010）。收稿日期：2023-08-23