BAI Xiuguang,LI Xiaopan.Impact of Climate Change on the Layout of Apple Production in China[J].Northern Horticulture,2016,40(01):204-209.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201601052]
气候变化对中国苹果主产区生产布局变迁的影响分析
- Title:
- Impact of Climate Change on the Layout of Apple Production in China
- Keywords:
- climate change; production layout; influencing factors; apple
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 20世纪80年代以来，中国苹果主产区生产布局总体呈现“由东向西”转移的趋势；另外，由于气候变暖，各主产省苹果种植边界逐渐北移，呈现“北上”的趋势。该研究运用面板数据模型分析了1984—2012年气候变化对中国苹果主产区生产布局变迁的影响。结果表明：降水量的增加会对苹果主产区生产布局变迁产生不利影响；气温的适度升高对黄土高原区苹果生产布局变迁有利，但对环渤海地区将产生不利影响；日照时数的增加对苹果主产区生产布局变迁产生有利影响；此外，苹果比较收益、非农就业机会、农业基础设施建设、技术进步、国家政策等因素也有显著影响，但对两大苹果主产区生产布局变迁的影响程度不同。
- Abstract:
- Since the 1980s，the apple production layout in China has changed greatly.The Loess Plateau had replaced the Bohai Sea region to become Chinese largest apple production areas，which represented the trend of “transfer from east to west”.Besides，with climate warming，the apple planting boundary gradually moved northward，which showed the trend of ‘northward’.To further analyze the reasons of the change，the paper analyzed the impact of climate change on Chinese apple production layout changes using Nerlove model with the panel data of 1984—2012.The results showed that,the increase of precipitation would have an adverse impact on the production layout of Chinese main apple production area；the temperature increased moderately was favorable to production layout in the Loess Plateau，while it was adverse to the Bohai Sea region；sunshine hours increased would have beneficial effects to production layout in the Loess Plateau and Bohai Sea region，and the influence degree on the Loess Plateau region was greater；in addition，apples comparison income，non-agricultural employment opportunities，agricultural infrastructure，technological progress，and national policy also had significant effect，but the degree of influence was different.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：白秀广（1981-），男，河南浚县人，博士，副教授，硕士生导师，研究方向为资源与环境和农业经济理论与政策。E-mail:baixg960@nwsuaf.edu.cn.基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（71303188）；教育部人文社科基金资助项目（11YJC630003）；国家苹果产业技术体系资助项目（20080107003）；西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费资助项目（2452015456）。