TIAN Enhui,SU Zhou,BAI Li.Analysis of Changes in the Industrial Layout and Influencing Factors of Chinese Jujube Industry[J].Northern Horticulture,2025,(19):140-148.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20250158]
中国大枣产业布局变迁及影响因素分析
- Title:
- Analysis of Changes in the Industrial Layout and Influencing Factors of Chinese Jujube Industry
- 文章编号:
- 1001-0009(2025)19-0140-09
- 分类号:
- S 665.1
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 大枣产业是我国传统的农业支柱产业之一，在提升农民收入、促进地方经济发展方面发挥着关键作用。基于2005—2022年中国省域层面的大枣产量数据，实证研究中国大枣生产布局变迁及其影响因素。采用ArcGIS软件和重心理论分析中国大枣产量、生产集中度及重心移动轨迹和标准差椭圆，并运用随机效应Tobit模型探析中国大枣生产布局变迁的影响因素，以期为中国大枣产业布局规划提供参考依据。结果表明：中国大枣产业生产目前已形成了以北方干旱及半干旱地区，黄土高原地区、黄淮海平原区为主的三大大枣产区生产格局。从迁移轨迹来看，大枣产区迁移呈现出向西向北的趋势。从影响因素来看，降水量、非农就业水平以及技术进步等因素对于大枣产区迁移起着决定性作用。传统大枣产区与新兴大枣产区需要采取适地措施，共同进步，实现大枣产业可持续发展。
- Abstract:
- The jujube industry is one of China′s traditional agricultural pillar industries and played a pivotal role in increasing farmers′ incomes and promoting local economic development.Based on provincial-level jujube yield data in China from 2005 to 2022，an empirical study was conducted on the evolution of China′s jujube production layout and its influencing factors.ArcGIS software and the center of gravity theory were used to analyze China′s jujube output，production concentration，the trajectory of the center of gravity movement，and the standard deviational ellipse.A random-effects Tobit model was employed to investigate the factors influencing the changes in China′s jujube production layout,in order to provide reference for the layout planning of China′s jujube industry.The results showed that China′s jujube production had formed a pattern dominated by three major production regions,the arid and semi-arid regions of Northern China，the Loess Plateau region，and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.In terms of migration trajectory，jujube production areas shifted westward and northward.Regarding influencing factors，precipitation，non-agricultural employment levels，and technological progress played decisive roles in the migration of jujube production areas.Both traditional and emerging jujube producing regions needed to adopt location-specific measures，progress together，and achieve sustainable development of the jujube industry.
参考文献/References:
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：田恩慧（2001-），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为产业经济。E-mail:teh15753883728@163.com.责任作者：白丽（1979-），女，博士，教授，现主要从事农业产业经济等研究工作。E-mail：auh100li@126.com.基金项目：河北省现代农业产业技术体系干果产业创新团队资助项目（HBCT2024190401）。收稿日期：2025-02-26