LI Guozhu,KANG Donglei.Spatial and Temporal Distribution，Decoupling Characteristics and Driving Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Hebei Province[J].Northern Horticulture,2025,(10):145-155.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20244764]
河北农业碳排放的时空分布、脱钩特征及驱动因素
- Title:
- Spatial and Temporal Distribution，Decoupling Characteristics and Driving Factors of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Hebei Province
- 文章编号:
- 1001-0009(2025)10-0145-11
- 分类号:
- F 327
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 随着“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的提出，农业领域碳减排的工作面临着新的挑战与机遇。基于2010—2022年河北省以及11个地级市农用物资投入、农业产值等统计数据，通过IPCC碳排放系数法对农业碳排放量进行测度，评估考察期内河北省农业碳排放量的时序变化与空间格局，运用Tapio脱钩模型探讨河北省农业碳排放量与经济增长之间的关系，并利用对应分析与LMDI模型探究农业碳排放的主导驱动因素。结果表明：河北省农业碳排放总量趋于下降态势，化肥是最主要碳源；河北省农业碳排放量呈现“北部低、南部高”的空间分布特点且城市之间存在较大地区差异；河北省农业碳排放脱钩类型近年来整体上呈现强脱钩，城市间差异逐渐缩小；农业生产效率与生产结构对河北省农业碳排放具有负向影响，农业产出水平与劳动力规模对河北省农业碳排放具有正向影响。未来应持续加强农业低碳技术的研究与应用，推动农业生产方式转型升级，实现农业经济与生态环境的协调发展。
- Abstract:
- With the proposed goal of ‘carbon peak，carbon neutrality’，the work of carbon reduction in agriculture is facing new challenges and opportunities.Based on the statistical data of agricultural material input and agricultural output value in Hebei Province and 11 prefecture-level cities during 2010—2022，the agricultural carbon emissions were measured by IPCC carbon emission coefficient method，and the temporal changes and spatial patterns of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province during the investigation period were evaluated.The Tapio decoupling model was used to explore the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth in Hebei Province，and the corresponding analysis and LMDI model was used to explore the leading driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions.The results showed that the total agricultural carbon emission in Hebei Province tends to decline，and fertilizer was the main carbon source.The spatial distribution of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province was ‘low in the north and high in the south’，and there were large regional differences among cities.In recent years，the decoupling type of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province showed strong decoupling on the whole，and the differences between cities gradually narrowed.Agricultural production efficiency and production structure had a negative impact on agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province，while agricultural output level and labor force scale had a positive impact on agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei Province.In the future，we should continue to strengthen the research and application of agricultural low-carbon technologies，promote the transformation and upgrading of agricultural production methods，and achieve the coordinated development of agricultural economy and ecological environment.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：李国柱(1971-)，男，博士，教授，现主要从事统计理论与方法等研究工作。E-mail：552029848@qq.com.基金项目：河北省创新创业教育教学改革研究与实践资助项目 (2023cxcy138)；河北省研究生教育教学改革研究资助项目 (YJG2024091)。收稿日期：2024-12-03