LI Rongping,ZHANG Xiaoyue,LI Jing.Flowering Phenology Characteristics and Simulation ofLilacs Under Climate Change[J].Northern Horticulture,2018,42(01):109-113.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20171668]
气候变化背景下紫丁香花期物候特征及其模拟研究
- Title:
- Flowering Phenology Characteristics and Simulation ofLilacs Under Climate Change
- Keywords:
- lilacs; flowering; phenology model; accumulated temperature
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 紫丁香开花时间和花期长短的精准模拟对于避开花期过敏和开展赏花旅游具有重要意义。该试验采用模拟退火算法积温模型对开花期模拟的适用性，并基于统计原理探讨了紫丁香不同开花期的积温指标及其与气温的关系，建立了紫丁香开花末期的新模拟模型。结果表明：紫丁香开花始期和开花盛期>5 ℃积温具有较好的稳定性，能够利用积温模型进行模拟。紫丁香开花末期>5 ℃积温波动较大，与5月平均气温呈显著正相关，气温的升高导致紫丁花的花期延长。紫丁香开花始期和开花末期的利用积温模型模拟，最高解释率分别为45.1%和26.2%，而紫丁香开花末期通过>5 ℃积温与花期的平均气温的线性拟合方程和积温方程组合，模型解释率达80.0%，明显提高模型的模拟精度。
- Abstract:
- Accurate simulation of flowering and flowering time length of lilacs has important significance for avoid allergies and blooming flowers tourism.The applicability of the accumulated temperature model to lilacs flowering period was tested by using the simulated annealing algorithm.At the same time, the principle of statistical index of the accumulated temperature of lilacs different flowering period and its relationship with the temperature were discussed.The new simulation model for the end of lilacs bloom was established.The results showed that accumulated temperature with beyond 5 ℃ in the begin and mid of lilacs bloom had good stability, which were simulated using the accumulated temperature model.Accumulated temperature with beyond 5 ℃ in the end of lilacs bloom had big fluctuation, it had significantly positively relationship with average temperature in May, temperatures raise resulted in extend of lilac flowering stage.The begin and the end stage of lilacs bloom could be simulated well by accumulated temperature model, their highest explain rate was 45.1% and 26.2%, respectively.However, using accumulated temperature equation with 5 ℃ and the linear fitting equation of average temperature and accumulated temperature with 5 ℃, the end stage of lilacs bloom could be better simulated, the explain rate was 80.0%, significantly improved the simulation precision of the phenology.
参考文献/References:
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：李荣平（1975-），男，江西新建人，博士，副研究员，现主要从事农业气象等研究工作。E-mail：rongpingli@aliyun.com.