HAN Ming-chen,LIANG Yu-lian,WANG Hua-ru.Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Persistence Agrometeorological Disaster Indexes of China in the Latest 30 Years[J].Northern Horticulture,2014,38(24):196-201.
中国近三十年持续性农业气象灾害指标时空分布特征
- Title:
- Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Persistence Agrometeorological Disaster Indexes of China in the Latest 30 Years
- 文章编号:
- 1001-0009（2014）24-0196-06
- Keywords:
- cagriculture; extreme meteorological disasters; indexes; spatial and temporal distribution; trend analysis; China
- 分类号:
- S 162
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 基于1981—2010年中国756个标准气象台站的地面观测数据，选取表征农业气象灾害的气象要素指标，采用GIS技术揭示我国近30年主要农业气象灾害的分布现状，并对其在30年内的变化进行趋势分析。结果表明：近30年内，持续高温呈增加趋势，持续极端高温的显著增加区域出现在西北地区、东南和华南沿海区域，防止高温热浪对农作物造成伤害的重点应该放在这些区域。持续低温、春季寒冷指数和冬季积寒量均呈减小趋势，这3个指标的显著减小区域多出现在中纬度地区。中纬度地区对全球变暖的显著响应使得该区域作物的种植北界北抬，利于温带作物生长域拓宽和产量提升。2个表征水分的农业气象灾害指标中，极端降水强度在近30年内未显示出明显的变化趋势；持续无降水日数则表现出显著增加趋势。总体来看，我国受干旱灾害性天气的影响程度明显增加，有必要通过兴修水利、补充灌溉等农业措施保证农作物的用水补给。
- Abstract:
- Based on observational data of 756 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2010，the meteorological element indexes which representing agro-meteorological disaster were chosen to analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution and its change characteristics of agrometeorological disasters in 1981—2010 using the GIS technology and the trend analysis method.The results showed that the continuous high temperature days presented a trend of increasing in the latest 30 years，and the highest increase amplitude were present to the coastal regions of southeast china，southern china and northwest china.The prevention emphasis of heat waves influence on crop should be in these regions.The continuous low temperature days，spring coldness index and winter cold accumulation were decreased overall.Significantly decrease area of these three indexes was mainly turning up in the mid-latitude region.The northern planting boundary of crop had extended to north due to middle latitude region response to global warming and was beneficial to the growing domain widening and yield enhancement of temperate crops.Under the background of global warming，the extreme climate disasters in the mid-latitude region were more significantly response to climate change.Precipitation intensity did not show an obvious trend in the latest 30 years while continuous no rainfall days were significantly increased.The extent of drought disaster in China was increased in the latest 30 years.Water conservancy construction and supplementary irrigation were necessary to ensure water supply of crops.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：韩明臣（1984-），男，山东安丘人，博士，工程师，现主要从事森林资源与环境监测评价等研究工作。E-mail：xinyue_644@163.com.