XUE Qinglin,WEI Zikun,HAN Qiao,et al.Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics,Prediction and Early Warning of Qi Chrysanthemum in Post Epidemic Era[J].Northern Horticulture,2022,(11):135-14.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20214445]
后疫情时代祁菊价格波动特征及预测预警
- Title:
- Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics,Prediction and Early Warning of Qi Chrysanthemum in Post Epidemic Era
- Keywords:
- price of Qi chrysanthemum; COVID-19; decomposition of price fluctuation; prediction and early warning
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 祁菊作为治疗新冠肺炎“三药三方”的主要成分，近年来波动频繁，为探究祁菊价格波动规律促进祁菊产业有序健康发展，该研究选取2014年7月至2020年11月祁菊月度价格数据，通过X-12季节调整法和H-P滤波法对祁菊价格序列进行分解，求出不同波动成分的贡献率，再借助ARIMA模型与黑色预警模型，对祁菊价格进行预测预警。结果表明：影响价格波动的因素中趋势性因素处于主导地位，随机因素中周期性因素的贡献率最大，为11.84%，季节性因素与不规则性因素均为3.96%，且三者均呈现下降趋势。随后预测了后续15个月的价格，出现1次负向重警，3次负向轻警，其余的指数波动率也均为负值，表明未来的15个月祁菊价格下行压力较大，最后提出提升产业融合度、价格监测度与风险分担度的对策建议。
- Abstract:
- Qi chrysanthemum,as novel coronavirus pneumonia ‘three drugs three parties’ main ingredient,fluctuated frequently in recent years.In order to explore the law of Qi chrysanthemum price fluctuation and promote the orderly and healthy development of Qi chrysanthemum industry,we selected monthly data of Qi chrysanthemum from July 2014 to November 2020,decomposed the price sequence of Qi chrysanthemum by X-12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method,and found out the contribution rate of different fluctuation components.Then with the help of ARIMA model and black early warning model,the price of Qi chrysanthemum was predicted and warned.The results showed that among the factors affecting price fluctuation,the trend factor was in the dominant position.Among the random factors,the contribution rate of periodic factor was the largest,which was 11.84%,and the contribution rate of seasonal factor and found factor was 3.96%.Subsequently,the price in the next 15 months was predicted.There was one negative heavy alarm and three negative light alarms,and the other index volatility were also negative,indicating that there was great downward pressure on Qi chrysanthemum price in the next 15 months.Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the degree of industrial integration,price monitoring and risk sharing are put forward.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：薛庆林（1960-），男，博士，教授，博士生导师，现主要从事中药材产业经济等研究工作。E-mail:weizikun6481@163.com.责任作者：王建忠（1965-），男，博士，教授，博士生导师，现主要从事农业产业经济等研究工作。E-mail:wei754912388@163.com.基金项目：河北省现代农业产业技术体系中药材产业创新建设资助项目（HBCT2018060301）；河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究资助项目（SD181041）；河北省教育厅省级研究生创新资助项目（CXZZBS2019104）。收稿日期：2021-11-04