QIU Zeguo,YANG Yi,LIU Wenjun.Simulation and Countermeasure Research on Rural E-commerce Development in Heilongjiang Province Based on SD Model[J].Northern Horticulture,2019,43(14):151-159.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20190813]
基于SD模型的黑龙江省农村电商发展仿真及对策研究
- Title:
- Simulation and Countermeasure Research on Rural E-commerce Development in Heilongjiang Province Based on SD Model
- Keywords:
- rural e-commerce; system dynamics; simulation; development strategy
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 新经济条件下，农村电商发展成为振兴乡村经济的重要手段。在国内外对农村电商研究的基础上，结合黑龙江省农村电商“本土化”的发展特征，构建基于系统动力学的农村电商发展模型，从准备度、应用度和影响度3个层面构建系统因果关系图，并从微观、中观和宏观层面研究它们之间的相互关联与动力机制，对黑龙江省农村电商2010—2022年的发展现状进行定量仿真分析。结果表明：推动农村电商发展可以快速提升农民收入，拉动地区生产总值，提高信息化水平，有效改善农村居民生活现状。针对仿真结果，提出黑龙江省农村电商发展环境优化、加强市场与科技影响和综合全面发展三大策略方针并作仿真对比分析。
- Abstract:
- Under the new economic conditions,the development of rural e-commerce has become an important means of revitalizing the rural economy.Based on the research on rural e-commerce at home and abroad,combined with the development characteristics of rural e-commerce ‘localization’ in Heilongjiang Province,a rural e-commerce development model based on system dynamics was constructed.And then building system causality diagram from three levels：readiness,intensity and impact degree,and the interrelationship and dynamic mechanism between them were studied from the micro,meso and macro levels.After quantitative analysis of the development status of rural e-commerce in Heilongjiang Province from 2010 to 2022,it was found that promoting the development of rural e-commerce could rapidly increase farmers′ income,stimulate regional GDP,effectively improve the level of informatization and the living conditions of rural residents.Based on the simulation results,the three strategies of rural e-commerce development environment optimization,strengthening market and technology impact and comprehensive development in Heilongjiang Province were put forward and simulated and analyzed.
参考文献/References:
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：邱泽国（1981-），男，博士，副教授，现主要从事管理决策与信息系统、农村电子商务等研究工作。E-mail：qiuzeguo@sina.com 责任作者：刘文军(1971-),男,硕士，教授,现主要从事民主法治建设等研究工作。E-mail：LIUwj@hrbcu.edu.cn.基金项目：2017年国家社会科学资助项目（17BY119）；2018年黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划资助项目（18FC010）；2016年黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划资助项目（16YJB15）;黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划资助项目(16JYB15)。收稿日期：2019-04-03