LI Wanming,TANG Hemin.Decomposition of Driving Factors and Influencing Factors on Change of Chemical Fertilizer Intensity in Xinjiang Province[J].Northern Horticulture,2018,42(14):178-186.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20174830]
新疆化肥施用强度变化的驱动因子及其影响因素
- Title:
- Decomposition of Driving Factors and Influencing Factors on Change of Chemical Fertilizer Intensity in Xinjiang Province
- Keywords:
- Xinjiang; crop levels; regional levels; fertilizer use intensity; structure effect; efficiency effect
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 基于新疆2006—2016年14地州60县以及15种大宗和特色作物的面板数据，采用因素分解模型，从区域层面和农产品层面分别对化肥施用强度变化的驱动因子进行分解。结果表明：区域和农产品层面的化肥施用强度均远远高于安全范围。区域层面，产业结构调整和化肥利用效率的变动共同促进了化肥施用强度的提高；农产品层面，农作物结构调整对化肥施用强度增加有抑制作用，而农作物化肥利用效率变动对化肥施用强度增加有促进作用。新疆化肥施用强度还处于“倒U型”的上升污染阶段，化肥施用强度的主要影响因素是农业劳动力占比、人均耕地规模、节水灌溉率和农业科技进步。
- Abstract:
- In order to achieve the goal of reducing the application of chemical fertilizer,the driving factors of chemical fertilizer intensity change were decomposed into structure effect and efficiency effect by means of the complete factor decomposition model,based on panel data of 60 counties in 14 prefecture and 15 crops in Xinjiang Province during 2006—2016.Then,the fertilizer intensity driven by the efficiency change was decomposed by the chemical fertilizer intensity decomposition model,and the influencing factors were analyzed.The results showed that the fertilizer use intensity had grown rapidly over the study period and was much higher than the international accepted critical level;structural change had little effect on fertilizer utilization intensity.At the regional level,structural change and fertilizer use efficiency promoted the utilization intensity of fertilizer,and the contribution of fertilizer utilization was much higher than that of structural change.It verified that Xinjiang′s chemical fertilizer intensity was in the descent pollution control stage of ‘inverse U’.The essential reasons for the decrease of chemical fertilizer strength were agricultural science and technology progress,agricultural labor force ratio，farmland areas person and water saving irrigation rate.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：李万明（1960-），男，新疆吉木萨尔人，硕士，教授，博士生导师，研究方向为农垦经济和企业战略管理。E-mail:Lwm212@163.com.基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（71563040，41361101）。收稿日期：2018-03-12