XU Dongyang,REN Yongtai,CHENG Kun.Risk Assessment of Ecological Security of Regional Soil and Water Resources Based on Dynamic Perspective[J].Northern Horticulture,2019,43(05):107-115.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20182482]
基于动态视角下的区域水土资源生态安全风险评估
- Title:
- Risk Assessment of Ecological Security of Regional Soil and Water Resources Based on Dynamic Perspective
- Keywords:
- DPSIR model; contribution; risk value; agricultural water use
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 水土资源生态安全是人类社会可持续发展的长久保障。该研究基于资源环境与社会经济的视角对DPSIR模型进行改进，针对水资源系统的复杂、不确定性，运用不同年份各指标对水土资源生态安全风险值的贡献程度确定指标权重、结合综合评价法对黑龙江2003—2016年水土资源生态安全进行风险评价。结果表明：水土资源生态安全风险等级为IV级（较高风险），整体呈先下降后上升的发展趋势。主因是正向指标农、工业万元产值耗水量的降低，导致生态安全风险值的下降；后期上升趋势是由于负向指标生态环境用水比例的降低，导致生态安全风险值的上升。2003—2016年影响系统对水土资源生态安全风险水平影响显著，响应系统生态安全风险值最大、安全性低，驱动力系统安全性最高。生态安全建设的阻碍系统由社会经济转变为资源环境，主因是农业用水比例过高、严重制约生态安全风险值的降低。
- Abstract:
- The ecological security of water and land resources is the long-term guarantee for the sustainable development of human society.Based on the resource environment and socio-economic perspective,this study improved the DPSIR model.According to the complexity and uncertainty of the water resources system,the contribution weight of each indicator in different years to the ecological security risk value of water and soil resources was determined,and the comprehensive evaluation method was combined,according to Heilongjiang 2003—2016 risk assessment of ecological security of water and soil resources.The results showed that the ecological security risk level of water and soil resources was Grade IV (higher risk),and the overall trend was to decline first and then rise.The main reason was the agricultural and industrial output value of ten thousand yuan of water consumption that was decreasing,which leaded to the decline of the ecological safety risk value.The late rising trend was due to the decrease of the proportion of the ecological environment water in the negative indicator,which leaded to the increase of the ecological safety risk value.In 2003—2016,the impact system had a significant impact on the ecological security risk level of water and soil resources.The response system had the highest ecological security risk value and low safety,and the driving system had the highest safety.The obstacle system of ecological security construction had changed from social economy to resource environment.The main reason was that the proportion of agricultural water was too high,which seriously restricted the reduction of ecological security risk value.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：许东阳（1992-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为区域水资源系统。E-mail:565118851@qq.com.责任作者：任永泰（1973-），男，硕士，教授，研究方向为农业系统工程理论方法及应用。E-mail:ytren@neau.edu.cn.基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（51609039）;中国博士后科学基金资助项目（2016M601410）;黑龙江省自然科学基金资助项目（E2017006）;黑龙江省博士后科学基金资助项目（LBH-Z16025）。收稿日期：2018-09-17