WEI Deyun,LU Jun.Margin of Safety and Profit Sensitivity Analysis of Protected Vegetable Production[J].Northern Horticulture,2017,41(18):192-197.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20170217]
设施蔬菜生产的安全边际及利润敏感性分析
- Title:
- Margin of Safety and Profit Sensitivity Analysis of Protected Vegetable Production
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为探讨设施蔬菜生产的成本结构、安全边际和利润影响因素，以2016年浙江省临安市30家大棚蔬菜种植户调研数据为样本，分析了大棚蔬菜种植的成本构成、盈亏临界点，以及单价、销售量、单位变动成本、固定成本等利润敏感性系数，对设施蔬菜生产的盈亏平衡及利润分析方法进行了有益探索。结果表明：在大棚蔬菜种植成本结构中，大棚建造成本和人工费所占的比重较大，其次是肥料费、薄膜费、农药费、种苗费，最少的是农机作业费。盈亏临界销售量为1 265.02 kg，超出该盈亏临界点的部分为安全边际量。大棚蔬菜种植利润影响因素的敏感系数由大到小依次为单价＞销售量＞单位变动成本＞固定成本总额。由多因素敏感性分析可预测得到2017年的大棚蔬菜种植利润。
- Abstract:
- This study took the survey data of 30 greenhouse vegetable farmers in Lin′an city，Zhejiang Province in 2016 as sample，the cost structure，break even point，margin of safety and sensitivity coefficient of profit influencing factors in the amenities vegetable production were analyzed.The results showed that the greenhouse construction cost and labor cost accounted for a large proportion in the cost structure of protected vegetable planting，then followed by fertilizer cost，plastic sheeting cost，pesticide cost，and seedlings cost，the least was agricultural machinery operation cost.The descending ranking of sensitivity coefficient of profit influencing factors in the greenhouse vegetable planting were as follows,unit price，sales volume，unit variable cost，total fixed cost.The volume of sales at break even point was 1 265.02 kg，beyond this point was the safety margin.The multiple factor sensitivity analysis could predict the profit of protected vegetable production in 2017.This research provided an explore way to analyze and solve the profit and loss balance problems for protected vegetable production.
参考文献/References:
[1]沈军,高丽红,张真和,等.中国设施园艺产业的经济性分析[J].农业现代化研究,2015(4)：651-656.
相似文献/References:
[1]陈晓云,张亚文,詹德江,等.辽宁海城设施蔬菜土壤重金属污染评价研究[J].北方园艺,2014,38(01):165.
CHEN Xiao-yun,ZHANG Ya-wen,ZHAN De-jiang,et al.Study on Evaluation of Soil Heavy Metal Pollution of Greenhouse Vegetable in North China[J].Northern Horticulture,2014,38(18):165.
[2]危才计,李录堂.组织资本对设施蔬菜产量的影响效应分析[J].北方园艺,2014,38(08):193.
WEI Cai-ji,LI Lu-tang.Effect of Organization Capital on Greenhouse Vegetable Production[J].Northern Horticulture,2014,38(18):193.
[3]谢华,裴红霞,赵云霞,等.宁夏非耕地设施蔬菜发展现状[J].北方园艺,2013,37(05):178.
XIE Hua,PEI Hong-xia,ZHAO Yun-xia,et al.Present Status of Non-cultivated Land Facility Vegetable in Ningxia[J].Northern Horticulture,2013,37(18):178.
[4]王怀栋,李明,黄修梅.内蒙古自治区设施蔬菜产业发展的思考[J].北方园艺,2012,36(03):171.
WANG Huai-dong,LI Ming,HUANG Xiu-mei.Reflecting on Developing of Facilities Vegetables Industryin Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region[J].Northern Horticulture,2012,36(18):171.
[5]马建华,张丽荣,杜玉宁.不同蔬菜种植模式对设施栽培土壤微生物和枯萎病发生的影响[J].北方园艺,2012,36(22):38.
MA Jian-hua,ZHANG Li-rong,DU Yu-ning.Effect of Different Vegetable Cropping Patterns on Soil Microbes and Wilt in Facilities Cultivation[J].Northern Horticulture,2012,36(18):38.
[6]刘华,章圣强,曹靖.甘肃沿黄灌区设施蔬菜施肥现状及问题分析[J].北方园艺,2012,36(14):45.
LIU Hua,ZHANG Sheng-qiang,CAO Jing.Status Investigation of Fertilizing on Greenhouse Vegetable Production in Yellow River Irrigation Area[J].Northern Horticulture,2012,36(18):45.
[7]毕洪文.基于农业物联网的设施蔬菜可追溯体系建设[J].北方园艺,2014,38(15):224.
BI Hong-wen.The Construction of Traceability System of Vegetables Based on Things Agricultural Facilities[J].Northern Horticulture,2014,38(18):224.
[8]刘乐承.山区发展设施蔬菜的SWOT分析[J].北方园艺,2014,38(18):200.
LIU Le-cheng.SWOT Analysis on the Development of Facility Vegetable in Mountain Areas[J].Northern Horticulture,2014,38(18):200.
[9]黄欣阳.沈阳市设施蔬菜发展现状研究[J].北方园艺,2014,38(23):169.
HUANG Xin-yang.Research Status on Protected Vegetable in Shenyang City[J].Northern Horticulture,2014,38(18):169.
[10]王志勇,赵艳艳,姚秋菊,等.雾霾寒冷天气对河南省设施蔬菜生产的影响[J].北方园艺,2015,39(06):47.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201506013]
WANG Zhi-yong,ZHAO Yan-yan,YAO Qiu-ju,et al.Influence of Cold Haze Weather on Facility Vegetable Production in Henan Province[J].Northern Horticulture,2015,39(18):47.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201506013]
备注/Memo
第一作者简介：魏德云(1983-)，女，硕士，讲师，现主要从事农业会计学等研究工作。E-mail：weideyun911@126.com.