CUI Ningbo,MA Zhiwei,LIU Wang.Analysis of Fluctuation Characteristics and Driving Factors of Garlic Prices in Shandong Province[J].Northern Horticulture,2026,(12):143-151.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20260284]
山东省大蒜价格波动特征及驱动因素分析
- Title:
- Analysis of Fluctuation Characteristics and Driving Factors of Garlic Prices in Shandong Province
- 文章编号:
- 1001-0009(2026)12-0143-09
- Keywords:
- garlic price fluctuations; CF filter method; cobweb effect; GARCH models; risk early warning
- 分类号:
- F323.7
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 在全球供应链脆弱性加剧及地缘经济不确定的背景下，山东省大蒜价格频繁呈现非线性剧烈震荡。基于此，该研究选取2014—2024年山东省大蒜月度批发价格数据，运用Census X-13季节调整法、CF滤波法及GARCH族等模型进行系统分析。研究表明：长期趋势是驱动大蒜价格运行的主导力量，其对总波动的解释度主要源于成本刚性与消费升级；市场存在“蛛网”波动机制，且随着冷链技术普及与信息透明度提升，波动形态正由发散型向收敛型转变；微观层面市场呈现出对外部冲击的高度敏感性与非对称效应，且尚未形成有效的风险-收益补偿机制。据此，提出建立全产业链大数据监测预警体系、推广“保险+期货”金融工具、升级冷链物流与深加工“蓄水池”能力以及规范资本市场交易行为等对策建议。
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of intensifying global supply chain vulnerability and geoeconomic uncertainty,garlic prices in Shandong Province frequently exhibit nonlinear and sharp fluctuations.This study utilized monthly wholesale price data of garlic in Shandong Province from 2014 to 2024 to conduct a systematic analysis using the Census X-13 seasonal adjustment method,the CF filter,and GARCH family models.The findings indicated that the long-term trend was the dominant force driving garlic price movements,with its explanatory power for total volatility primarily stemming from cost rigidity and consumption upgrading;the market exhibited a ‘cobweb’ fluctuation mechanism,and with the widespread adoption of cold chain technology and improved information transparency,the fluctuation pattern was evolving from an early ‘divergent’ type to a mature ‘convergent’ type;at the micro level,the market demonstrated high sensitivity to external shocks and asymmetric effects,yet an effective risk-return compensation mechanism had not yet formed.Accordingly,policy recommendations were proposed,including establishing a big data monitoring and early warning system for the entire industrial chain,promoting ‘insurance + futures’ financial instruments,enhancing the ‘reservoir’ capacity of cold chain logistics and deep processing,and regulating trading behaviors in the capital market.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：崔宁波（1980-），女，博士，教授，现主要从事农业经济理论与政策等研究工作。E-mail：82890000@163.com.基金项目：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目（25FJYB072）；国家社会科学基金资助项目（23BJY188，20BJY149）；黑龙江省社会科学基金资助项目（25JYC019，54960612）。收稿日期：2026-01-22