ZHANG Youwang,YOU Aoting,JIANG Ruijia,et al.Research on the Measurement of Price Risk Level of Fruit and Vegetable Products in China[J].Northern Horticulture,2025,(15):147-154.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20245218]
我国果蔬产品价格风险水平测度研究
- Title:
- Research on the Measurement of Price Risk Level of Fruit and Vegetable Products in China
- 文章编号:
- 1001-0009(2025)15-0147-08
- Keywords:
- fruit and vegetable products; price risk; GSADF test
- 分类号:
- F 323.7
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 基于2008—2024年我国6种主要果蔬产品价格数据，运用GSADF方法测度了我国果蔬产品价格风险水平,以期为果蔬产业发展提供参考依据。结果表明：6种果蔬产品价格均不同程度存在泡沫，且泡沫事件发生时多伴随着价格暴涨或暴跌的极端风险出现；但不同果蔬产品价格风险水平存在差异，其中，大蒜和苹果价格泡沫发生频率高、泡沫总时长长、最大泡沫存续时间长、长泡沫占据主导，总体价格风险水平较高，香蕉、马铃薯、茄子和黄瓜价格泡沫发生频率低，泡沫总时长短，最大泡沫存续时间短，以短泡沫事件为主，总体价格风险水平较低。基于研究结果，从完善信息化平台建设，规范市场交易秩序，建立价格风险监测、预警和响应机制等方面提出了相关对策建议。
- Abstract:
- Based on the price data of six major fruit and vegetable products in China from 2008 to 2024，the GSADF method was used to measure the price risk level of fruit and vegetable products in China.The results showed that the prices of all six fruit and vegetable products had bubbles to varying degrees，and when bubble events occur，they were often accompanied by extreme price risks such as sharp price increases or decreases.However，there were differences in the risk levels of different fruit and vegetable products.Among them，garlic and apple had high bubble occurrence frequencies，long total bubble durations，long maximum bubble durations，and long bubbles dominate，with overall higher price risk levels.In contrast，bananas，potatoes，eggplants，and cucumbers had low bubble occurrence frequencies，short total bubble durations，short maximum bubble durations，and were mainly characterized by short bubble events，with overall lower price risk levels.Based on the research results，relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed from aspects such as improving the construction of information platforms，standardizing market trading order，and establishing price risk monitoring，early warning，and response mechanisms.
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：张有望（1990-），男，博士，讲师，现主要从事农业经济理论与政策、农产品市场与价格等研究工作。E-mail:zhyouwang@163.com.基金项目：中国博士后科学基金资助项目（2021M700740）；黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划资助项目（21JYC238）。收稿日期：2024-12-30