ZHANG Youwang,XU Yueyan.Research on the Bubble Risk of Vegetable Market in Heilongjiang Province[J].Northern Horticulture,2022,(07):142-147.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20214200]
黑龙江省蔬菜市场泡沫风险研究
- Title:
- Research on the Bubble Risk of Vegetable Market in Heilongjiang Province
- Keywords:
- vegetable price; price bubble; GSADF test
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 基于2004—2021年黑龙江省10种主要蔬菜价格数据，采用GSADF方法对黑龙江省蔬菜市场泡沫风险进行了测度与比较。结果表明：2种蔬菜不存在价格泡沫，8种蔬菜存在价格泡沫，价格泡沫出现的时间段在样本期内所占比重较小，但多伴随着价格的暴涨或暴跌；10种主要蔬菜中包括无风险种类2个，低风险种类4个，中风险种类4个。基于研究结果，从建立有效的预警和响应机制、根据不同品种有针对性地制定监控手段和调控措施等方面提出了保障黑龙江省蔬菜市场健康平稳运行的相关对策建议。
- Abstract:
- Based on the price data of 10 main vegetables in Heilongjiang Province from 2004 to 2021，the GSADF method was used to measure and compare the risk of vegetable market bubbles in Heilongjiang Province.The results showed that there was no price bubble for two kinds of vegetables，and there were price bubbles for eight kinds of vegetables.The time period during which the price bubble appeared accounts for a small proportion in the sample period，but it was mostly accompanied by a sharp rise or fall in prices.Among the 10 main vegetables，there were two non-risk varieties，four low-risk varieties，and four medium-risk varieties.Based on the research results，we put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions to ensure the healthy and stable operation of the vegetable market in Heilongjiang Province from the aspects of establishing an effective early warning and response mechanism，and developing targeted monitoring and control measures according to different varieties.
参考文献/References:
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：张有望（1990-），男，博士，讲师，现主要从事农业经济理论与政策、农产品市场与价格等研究工作。E-mail:zhyouwang@163.com.基金项目：东北农业大学“青年才俊”资助项目（20QC25）；国家自然科学基金面上资助项目（71873051）；中国博士后科学基金资助项目（2021M700740）；黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划资助项目（21JYC238）。收稿日期：2021-10-15