TAN Yarong,WANG Yigang,YU Jinying.An Empirical Study on the Impact of COVID-19 on Vegetable Prices in Beijing City[J].Northern Horticulture,2020,44(24):153-161.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20201717]
新冠肺炎疫情对北京市蔬菜价格影响实证研究
- Title:
- An Empirical Study on the Impact of COVID-19 on Vegetable Prices in Beijing City
- Keywords:
- COVID-19; public opinion index; vegetable price; TVP-VAR model
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为分析新冠肺炎疫情这一突发社会现象对北京市蔬菜市场的影响，该研究从网络舆情角度出发，首先构建了新冠肺炎疫情网络舆情指数，其次选取了2019年10月至2020年3月北京市5类常见蔬菜价格，最后基于TVP-VAR模型研究了新冠肺炎疫情舆情指数对北京市蔬菜价格波动的动态影响。结果表明：1）短期内，新冠肺炎舆情指数变动对北京市蔬菜价格的影响具有较强的显著性；2）新冠肺炎舆情指数对不同品种蔬菜价格变动的影响具有异质性，其中大蒜、黄瓜和马铃薯价格受疫情影响较大，其次为番茄和白菜；3）2020年3月19日前后，5类蔬菜价格在对新冠肺炎舆情变动的时点脉冲响应均为正向影响，与现实情况基本相符。据此，针对政府和农业生产经营主体提出相应的对策建议，以应对新冠肺炎疫情对北京市蔬菜产业的冲击。
- Abstract:
- To analysis the impact of the sudden social phenomenon of COVID-19 on the vegetable market in Beijing city,this study started from the perspective of internet public opinion,firstly,the index of public opinion of the COVID-19 is construct;secondly,the prices of five types of common vegetables in Beijing city from October 2019 to March 2020 are select;lastly,base on the TVP-VAR model,the dynamic impact of COVID-19 public opinion index on vegetable price fluctuations in Beijing city are study.The result showed that,1)in the short term,the impact of the change of public opinion index of COVID-19 on vegetable prices in Beijing city had a strong significance;2)the impact of the COVID-19 public opinion index on the price changes of different varieties of vegetables was heterogeneous,among which the prices of garlic,cucumber and potatoes were greatly affected by the epidemic,followed by tomatoes and cabbage;3)around March 19th,2020,the impulse response of all five vegetable prices to the change of COVID-19 public opinion index was positive,which was basically consistent with the reality.Accordingly,this study put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the government and agriculture managing body to deal with the impact of the COVID-19 on the vegetable industry in Beijing city.
参考文献/References:
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备注/Memo
第一作者简介：谭雅蓉（1990-），女，硕士，助理研究员，现主要从事农业经济管理等研究工作。E-mail:542211873@qq.com.责任作者：于金莹（1979-），女，硕士，高级工程师，现主要从事农业信息服务与农业经济管理等研究工作。E-mail:yujy@agri.ac.cn.基金项目：北京市科技计划资助项目（Z181100002418009）；北京市农林科学院科技创新能力建设专项资助项目（KJCX20170707）。收稿日期：2020-04-27