HAN Peipei,WEN Mingzhen,LI Wen,et al.Research on Risk Evaluation of Agricultural High-tech InvestmentProjects Based on Gray Synthetic Evaluation[J].Northern Horticulture,2017,41(22):180-185.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.20170984]
基于灰色综合评价的农业高科技投资项目风险评价研究
- Title:
- Research on Risk Evaluation of Agricultural High-tech InvestmentProjects Based on Gray Synthetic Evaluation
- Keywords:
- gray synthetic evaluation; analytic hierarchy process; agricultural high-tech investment projects; investment risk; risk evaluation
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 根据农业高科技投资项目的特点，采用层次分析法建立了风险指标评价体系，首次运用多层次灰色综合评价法度量农业高科技投资项目的风险，并进行了算例分析。结果表明：运用多层次灰色综合评价法，可以有效计算农业高科技投资项目风险的综合评价值，据此分析项目的风险等级；运用该方法，可以分别计算出准则层因素的风险值，对风险较高的因素进行监控及预防；技术、研发、管理权重最高，是影响项目成败的关键；多层次灰色综合评价法是企业度量农业高科技投资项目风险大小的科学工具。
- Abstract:
- According to the characteristics of agricultural high-tech investment projects，the risk index evaluation system was established by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP),the risk of agricultural high-tech investment projects was evaluated by the multi-level gray comprehensive evaluation method for the first time，and a practical example was studied.The results showed that the comprehensive values of agricultural high-tech investment projects′ risks could be effectively calculated by the multi-level gray synthetic comprehensive evaluation method and that the risk level of the project could be analyzed.By applying this method，the risk value of the criterion layer factors could be calculated separately，and the risk factors were monitored and prevented.The weight of technology，R&D and management was the most important，which was the key to the success of the project.The multi-level gray synthetic comprehensive evaluation method was the scientific tool to measure the risk of agricultural high-tech investment projects.
参考文献/References:
[1]杨邦杰,洪仁彪,常瑞甫,等.农业投资项目风险因素识别概述[J].农业工程学报,1999(3):29-32.
相似文献/References:
[1]胡兴,李成俊,陈璋,等.公路边坡绿化的景观质量评价等级研究[J].北方园艺,2013,37(12):82.
HU Xing,LI Cheng-jun,CHEN Zhang,et al.Research on the Grades of Landscape Quality Evaluation on Roadside Slopes Greening[J].Northern Horticulture,2013,37(22):82.
[2]贾玲利,赵东平.层次分析法在园林发展研究中的应用[J].北方园艺,2012,36(07):104.
JIA Ling-li,ZHAO Dong-ping.Application of Analysis Hierarchy Process in the Research on the Development of the Garden[J].Northern Horticulture,2012,36(22):104.
[3]李兴,王健.乡村旅游对农村生态影响的评价模型构建研究[J].北方园艺,2014,38(15):220.
LI Xing,WANG Jian.Study on the Evaluation of Model Building Rural Tourism in Rural Ecological Impact[J].Northern Horticulture,2014,38(22):220.
[4]廖美兰,王华新,周修任,等.广西二十种金花茶观赏价值综合评价[J].北方园艺,2015,39(09):67.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201509020]
LIAO Mei-lan,WANG Hua-xin,ZHOU Xiu-ren,et al.Comprehensive Appraisal on Ornamental Value for Twenty Species of Camellia chrysantha in Guangxi[J].Northern Horticulture,2015,39(22):67.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201509020]
[5]张贝,姜新强,王奎玲,等.青岛地区宿根花卉引种及观赏价值综合评价[J].北方园艺,2015,39(14):71.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201514020]
ZHANG Bei,JIANG Xinqiang,WANG Kuiling,et al.Introduction and Ornamental Value Comprehensive Evaluation of Perennial Flowers in Qingdao[J].Northern Horticulture,2015,39(22):71.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201514020]
[6]廖萍,吴先辉.广州四所大学校园环境评析[J].北方园艺,2015,39(15):72.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201515021]
LIAO Ping,WU Xianhui.Analysis of Campus Environment of Four Universities in Guangzhou[J].Northern Horticulture,2015,39(22):72.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201515021]
[7]陈宝玲,王华新,陈尔,等.AHP评价法在广西铁皮石斛种质资源选育中的应用研究[J].北方园艺,2015,39(19):152.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201519037]
CHEN Baoling,WANG Huaxin,CHEN Er,et al.Study on Application of AHP Method in Germplasm Resources Breeding of Dendrobium officinale[J].Northern Horticulture,2015,39(22):152.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201519037]
[8]王辉,孙耀清,周兴文.信阳市优良观赏树种筛选的初步研究[J].北方园艺,2015,39(21):67.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201521019]
WANG Hui,SUN Yaoqing,ZHOU Xingwen.Study on Screening of Outstanding Ornamental Trees in Xinyang[J].Northern Horticulture,2015,39(22):67.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201521019]
[9]唐亚楠,赵邦宏.基于层次分析法的迁西县栗蘑产业影响因素分析[J].北方园艺,2015,39(22):181.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201522047]
TANG Yanan,ZHAO Banghong.Analysis of Influencing Factors of Qianxi County Chestnut Mushroom Industry Based on AHP[J].Northern Horticulture,2015,39(22):181.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201522047]
[10]白世践,李超,户金鸽,等.层次-关联分析法在引种鲜食葡萄品质综合评价中的应用[J].北方园艺,2016,40(16):1.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201616001]
BAI Shijian,LI Chao,HU Jinge,et al.Application of Hierarchy-relation Analysis in Comprehensive Evaluation for the Quality of Introduction Table Grapes[J].Northern Horticulture,2016,40(22):1.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201616001]
备注/Memo
第一作者简介：韩培培（1989-），女，山东嘉祥人，博士研究生，研究方向为风险管理。E-mail：748966900@qq.com.