[1]冯立娟,陶吉寒,尹燕雷,等.近五十年气温变化对我国梨和桃生产的影响[J].北方园艺,2015,39(08):19-23.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201508005]
　FENG Li-juan,TAO Ji-han,YIN Yan-lei,et al.The Impacts of Air Temperature Change on the Production of Pear and Peach in China During the Recent Fifty Years[J].Northern Horticulture,2015,39(08):19-23.[doi:10.11937/bfyy.201508005]
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近五十年气温变化对我国梨和桃生产的影响

《北方园艺》[ISSN:1001-0009/CN:23-1247/S] 卷: 第39卷 期数: 2015年08 页码: 19-23 栏目: 出版日期: 2015-04-30
Title:
The Impacts of Air Temperature Change on the Production of Pear and Peach in China During the Recent Fifty Years
文章编号:
1001-0009(2015)08-0019-05
作者:
冯立娟; 陶吉寒; 尹燕雷; 杨雪梅; 武冲
（山东省果树研究所，山东 泰安 271000）
Author(s):
FENG Li-juan; TAO Ji-han; YIN Yan-lei; YANG Xue-mei; WU Chong
（Shandong Institute of Pomology，Tai’an，Shandong 271000）
关键词:
气温变化; 梨; 桃; 栽培面积; 产量
Keywords:
air temperature change; pear; peach; cultivated area; production
分类号:
S 66
DOI:
10.11937/bfyy.201508005
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
利用1961—2012年全国气温数据和梨、桃栽培面积与产量数据，通过相关回归等数理统计方法系统分析了不同季节和全年气温变化与2种果树栽培面积和产量之间的关系。结果表明：1961—2012年中国四季和全年平均气温、最高气温和最低气温变化趋势中，除春季和秋季最低气温表现为线性递减外，其它季节气温整体均呈上升趋势；全年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温每年分别上升0.020、0.038、0.002℃，平均气温、最高气温升高幅度均极显著；1961—2012年中国梨和桃栽培面积、总产量和单产量整体上逐渐升高，呈现不同的变化趋势；相关性分析表明，梨和桃栽培面积、总产量和单产量均与春季、夏季、秋季、冬季和全年平均气温和最高气温呈显著正相关，与最低气温相关性不显著；气温升高对梨和桃生产起正面效应。
Abstract:
Using the data of air temperature and cultivated area，production of pear，peach from 1961 to 2012，the change of air temperature in different seasons and full year related to cultivated area and yield of two fruits were analyzed by correlation and regression analysis and other statistical methods.The results showed that the average temperature，maximum temperature and minimum temperature were rising significantly as a whole in summer，winter and full year from 1961 to 2012.The average temperature and maximum temperature in spring and autumn increased linearly，the minimum temperature in spring and autumn decreased linearly.The average temperature，maximum temperature and minimum temperature of full year increased annually 0.020，0.038，0.002℃，respectively.There were extremely significantly different in the increasing amplitude of average temperature，maximum temperature in full year.The cultivated area，total production and yields of pear and peach increased gradually as a whole from 1961 to 2012，which presented different change trends.Correlation analysis indicated that the cultivated area，total production and yields of pear and peach were significantly and positively correlated with the average temperature and maximum temperature in spring，summer，autumn，winter and full year.The cultivated area，total production and yields of pear and peach were not remarkable relevance with minimum temperature in spring，summer，autumn，winter and full year.The rising of air temperature had positive effect on the production of pear and peach.

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备注/Memo

第一作者简介：冯立娟（1982-），女，博士研究生，助理研究员，现主要从事果树遗传资源与育种等研究工作。E-mail：fenglj1230@126.com.

责任作者：尹燕雷（1976-），男，硕士，副研究员，现主要从事果树遗传资源与育种等研究工作。E-mail：yylei66@sina.com.
基金项目：科技基础性工作专项子课题资助项目（2012 FY110100-4）。
收稿日期：2015-01-22

更新日期/Last Update: 2015-07-21