|Table of Contents|

Empirical Analysis on the Price Fluctuation Characteristics ofYali Pear in Hebei Province

《北方园艺》[ISSN:1001-0009/CN:23-1247/S]

Issue:
2023年03
Page:
138-144
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Empirical Analysis on the Price Fluctuation Characteristics ofYali Pear in Hebei Province
Author(s):
ZHOU Jihong1; NIU Guicao1; WANG Xiao1; ZHANG Liang1; WANG Junqin1; LI Xiansong2
(1.College of Economics and Management，Hebei Agricultural University，Baoding，Hebei 071000；2.Mountainous Area Research Institute of Hebei Province，Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding，Hebei 071000)
Keywords:
price of yali pear; fluctuation characteristics; ARCH models
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11937/bfyy.20222092
Abstract:
Hebei Province is a major producing province of yali pear in China.In recent years，the price of yali pear in Hebei Province is easy to fluctuate sharply，which has an adverse impact on the development of yali pear industry.Based on the price data of Hebei yali pear from January 2014 to March 2022，decomposition method and ARCH models were used to analyze the characteristics of yali pear price changes in Hebei Province.It was found that the long-term price trend of yali pear in Hebei Province was increasing earlier and decreasing later，and the price fluctuation was significantly seasonal and cyclical，the price changes well fit obvious agglomeration，without obvious characteristics of ‘high-risk and high-return’，the market price had asymmetry.Therefore，aiming at stabilizing yali pear price fluctuations，countermeasures and suggestions were put forward from three aspects，constructing the comprehensive information platform，improved the degree of industrial organization of yali pear and establishing and perfecting the risk resolution mechanism.

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Last Update: 2023-03-07