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Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics,Prediction and Early Warning of Qi Chrysanthemum in Post Epidemic Era

《北方园艺》[ISSN:1001-0009/CN:23-1247/S]

Issue:
2022年11
Page:
135-14
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics,Prediction and Early Warning of Qi Chrysanthemum in Post Epidemic Era
Author(s):
XUE Qinglin; WEI Zikun; HAN Qiao; CUI Yuanpei; WANG Jianzhong
(School of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding,Hebei 071000)
Keywords:
price of Qi chrysanthemum; COVID-19; decomposition of price fluctuation; prediction and early warning
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11937/bfyy.20214445
Abstract:
Qi chrysanthemum,as novel coronavirus pneumonia ‘three drugs three parties’ main ingredient,fluctuated frequently in recent years.In order to explore the law of Qi chrysanthemum price fluctuation and promote the orderly and healthy development of Qi chrysanthemum industry,we selected monthly data of Qi chrysanthemum from July 2014 to November 2020,decomposed the price sequence of Qi chrysanthemum by X-12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method,and found out the contribution rate of different fluctuation components.Then with the help of ARIMA model and black early warning model,the price of Qi chrysanthemum was predicted and warned.The results showed that among the factors affecting price fluctuation,the trend factor was in the dominant position.Among the random factors,the contribution rate of periodic factor was the largest,which was 11.84%,and the contribution rate of seasonal factor and found factor was 3.96%.Subsequently,the price in the next 15 months was predicted.There was one negative heavy alarm and three negative light alarms,and the other index volatility were also negative,indicating that there was great downward pressure on Qi chrysanthemum price in the next 15 months.Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the degree of industrial integration,price monitoring and risk sharing are put forward.

References:

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Last Update: 2022-07-19