|Table of Contents|

Analysis on Price Fluctuation and Early Warning of Watermelon in China

《北方园艺》[ISSN:1001-0009/CN:23-1247/S]

Issue:
2020年03
Page:
158-164
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Analysis on Price Fluctuation and Early Warning of Watermelon in China
Author(s):
YANG Nian1; 2; YANG Mengyang1; 2; WANG Weiyu3; WU Jingxue4
(1.Economics and Trade Department，Hebei Finance University，Baoding，Hebei 071000;2.Hebei Key Laboratory of Science and Technology Finance，Baoding，Hebei 071000；3.Organization Department，Hebei Agricultural University，Baoding，Hebei 071000；4.Institution of Agricultural Economics and Development，CAAS，Beijing 100081)
Keywords:
watermelon price; SARIMA model; seasonal separation model; prediction; price fluctuation warning
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11937/bfyy.20183956
Abstract:
Taking the monthly bulk price of watermelon from January 2010 to February 2018 as the research object，time series decomposition，SARIMA model and seasonal separation model were used to study the price fluctuation，price monitoring and early warning of watermelon,policy recommendations were made for different early warning areas to ensure that the price of watermelon fluctuates smoothly within normal range.The results showed that there was a clear seasonal cycle for the bulk price of watermelon in China from January 2010 to February 2018，because of the betterforecast effect，the seasonal separation model was used to forecast the watermelon price from March 2018 to December 2019，it was found that the price falls sharply from May to August，the yield rate was low，so it needed light or severe warning.And the fluctuations were within reasonable limits in the rest of the time，there was no need for warning.The fluctuations of watermelon price can influent farmers′ income and consumers′ life，perfect price information mechanism and price monitoring system can be established to guide farmers arrangement production reasonably and avoid ‘copycat’ or ‘reverseoperation’.

References:

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Last Update: 2020-02-27