Evaluation of Vegetable Price Risk in Hebei Province(PDF)

《北方园艺》[ISSN:1001-0009/CN:23-1247/S]

Author(s):: ZHANG Xin; ZHANG Run-qing; WANG Jian; College of Economics and Trade,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding,Hebei 071000

Abstract:: Taking the quarterly producer prices of six kinds of vegetable in Hebei as the object,the volatility between the actual price and the expected price as price risk when the farmers sold their vegetables,found the optimal probability distribution model for the vegetables price risk through the AD test,K-S test and chi-square test,eventually used the Value at Risk method (VaR method) assessed the price risk when farmers product and operate vegetable in Hebei Province.The results showed that although the vegetables prices had an upward trend,but also facing the risk of falling that could not be ignored.The descending order of the vegetable price risks that farmers faced was celery>cabbage>tomato>cabbage>cucumber>eggplant.

[1]黄靖贵,张军舰,付哈利.基于面板数据模型的生猪价格风险评估及预测研究[J].中国畜牧杂志,2011(22)：65-68.

[2]李干琼,许世卫,孙益国,等.中国蔬菜市场价格短期波动与风险评估[J].中国农业科学,2011(7):202-211.

[3]张峭,王川,王克,等.我国畜产品市场价格风险度量与分析[J].经济问题,2010(3):92-96.

[4]王川,赵友森.基于风险价值法的蔬菜市场风险度量与评估-以北京蔬菜批发市场为例[J].中国农村观察,2011(5):45-56,79,98.

[5]徐秋慧.论农户生产经营的价格风险与控制[J].经济与管理,2005(1):10-13.

Last Update: 2014-08-13