|Table of Contents|

Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Table Grape in China

《北方园艺》[ISSN:1001-0009/CN:23-1247/S]

Issue:
2024年18
Page:
136-144
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Table Grape in China
Author(s):
ZHAO Mengyao; ZHAO Junyan; ZHANG Ze; YAO Miao
(School of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University，Baoding，Hebei 071000)
Keywords:
grape price; wave characteristics; X12 seasonal adjustment model; H-P filtering method
PACS:
F 326.13
DOI:
10.11937/bfyy.20240266
Abstract:
The increasing demand for grapes in the world，China as the world′s largest table grape supplier，price volatility is also increasingly significant，which brings great challenges to the grape industry.In order to better grasp the fluctuation characteristics of grape market price and its influencing factors，the grape price data of China from January 2014 to October 2023 were selected，and the Census X12 seasonal change model and H-P filtering method were used to further explore the causes and possible impacts of grape price fluctuations,in order to inject new vitality into the healthy development of grape industry.The results showed that the seasonal and cyclical fluctuations of grape prices were gradually slowing down.Rising costs and increasing demand drive up the price trend；natural disasters，national policies and other factors lead to irregular fluctuations in grape prices.To this end，it was necessary to promote the stability of grape production and supply through technological progress,establish and improve the whole grape industry chain early warning mechanism,improve the characteristic agricultural insurance system,vigorously promote the integrated development of the grape industry.

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Last Update: 2024-10-11