|Table of Contents|

Study on the Impact Mechanism of Climate Disasters on Livelihood Vulnerability Based on Mediation Effect of Price Fluctuations

《北方园艺》[ISSN:1001-0009/CN:23-1247/S]

Issue:
2019年08
Page:
154-160
Research Field:
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Study on the Impact Mechanism of Climate Disasters on Livelihood Vulnerability Based on Mediation Effect of Price Fluctuations
Author(s):
LIU Pengwei; SU Meirui; WU Xiaoping; HUAI Jianjun
(College of Economics and Management,Northwest A & F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100)
Keywords:
climate change; price fluctuations; mediating effects; livelihood vulnerability; Bootstrap
PACS:
-
DOI:
10.11937/bfyy.20182942
Abstract:
Based on the data collected from 13 apple-producing counties in Shaanxi Province of China，through a Bootstrap mediation effect test,the study examines the direct impact of actual climate and perceived climate disasters on farmers′ livelihood vulnerability,and the indirect impact of apple price fluctuations on livelihood vulnerability,in oeder to examine the impact mechanism of climate disasters on livelihood vulnerability under the condition that price fluctuations play a mediating effect.The results showe that both actual and perceived climate disasters hada positive direct impact on livelihood vulnerability,and the impact of actual climate disasters on livelihood vulnerability was greater than perceived climate disasters（3.80>0.83）;price fluctuations playesa positive mediating role for the factors of actual and perceived climate disasters to affect livelihood vulnerability,moreover,the ratio of mediating effect to total effect was 37.93% and 38.33%,respectively.By comparison,it was found that the mediating effect of price fluctuations in the process of actual climate disasters was greater than the process of perceived climate disasters（2.32>0.52）.

References:

[1]TSCHAKERT P.P.Views from the vulnerable:Understanding climatic and other stressors in the Sahel[J].Global Environmental Change,2007,17(3):381-396.[2]HANDMER J,HONDA Y,KUNDZEWICZ Z W,et al.Changes in impacts of climate extremes:Human systems and ecosystems[R].A Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,2012.[3]CALVIN K,FISHERVANDEN K.Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture:An inter-method comparison[J].Environmental Research Letters,2017,12(11):115004.[4]SMITH E F,LIESKE S N,KEYS N,et al.The socio-economic vulnerability of the Australian east coast grazing sector to the impacts of climate change[J].Regional Environmental Change,2018,18(4):1185-1199.[5]MURNIATI J H,IRHAM.The livelihood vulnerability to climate change of two different farmer communities in Tanggamus Region,Lampung Province,Indonesia[J].Asian Journal of Agriculture & Development,2017,14(2):1-16.[6]黄珂毓,管宏友,杨志敏,等.贫困地区农户气候灾害感知及适应性行为研究[J].环境科学与技术,2017(2):200-205.[7]赵雪雁.农户对气候灾害的感知与适应研究综述[J].应用生态学,2014,25(8):2440-2448[8]UDDIN M N,BOKELMANN W,DUNN E S.Determinants of farmers′ perception of climate change:A case study from the Coastal Region of Bangladesh[J].American Journal of Climate Change,2017,6(1):151-165.[9]WILLENBOCKEL D.Extreme weather events and crop price spikes in a changing climate:Illustrative global simulation scenarios[R].Oxfam Research Reports,2012.[10]廖杉杉,鲁钊阳.农产品价格波动对农民收入增长的影响研究[J].商业经济研究,2017(17):114-117.[11]SKJEFLO S.Measuring household vulnerability to climate change-why markets matter[J].Global Environmental Change,2013,23(6):1694-1701.[12]肖文兴,陶盈,彭应兵.我国农产品价格波动的原因及对策[J].资源开发与市场,2013,29(5):491-495.[13]李西良,侯向阳,丁勇,等.不同草地资源水平牧户对气候灾害的感知与偏差途径[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(4):1080-1088.[14]NGUYEN T P L,SEDDAIU G,VIRDIS S G P,et al.Perceiving to learn or learning to perceive? Understanding farmers′ perceptions and adaptation to climate uncertainties[J].Agricultural Systems,2016,143:205-216.[15]ASAYEHEGN K,TEMPLE L,SANCHEZ B,et al.Perception of climate change and farm level adaptation choices in central Kenya[J].Cahiers Agricultures,2017,26(2):1-10.[16]王莉,JOHN M.雨养农业对气候变化脆弱性的实证研究:以甘肃省华池县为例[J].农村经济,2013(3):31-35[17]黄晓军,黄馨,崔彩兰,等.社会脆弱性概念、分析框架与评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(11):1512-1525.[18]汤青.黄土高原农户可持续生计评估及未来生计策略:基于陕西延安市和宁夏固原市1076户农户调查[J]地理科学进展,2013,32(2):161-169.[19]于林霞,张波,白秀广.黄土高原区苹果生产技术效率及其影响因素研究:基于528户苹果种植户的调查数据[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(4):68-74.[20]殷淑燕,黄春长.黄土高原苹果基地土壤干燥化原因及其对策[J].干旱区资源与环境,2005,19(2):76-80.[21]周霞,胡继连.我国苹果供求弹性与生产波动影响因素研究[J].农业技术经济,2013(7):63-71.[22]高雪,李谷成,尹朝静.极端气候变化及其对水稻气候产量影响的实证分析:以湖北省为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(5):153-162.[23]DABA M.Assessing local community perceptions on climate change and variability and its effects on crop production in Western Oromia,Ethiopia[C].Cape Town:African Higher Education Week and Ruforum Fifth Biennial Conference 20162018.[24]常成,淮建军.黄土高原苹果农户气候风险的感知脆弱性评估[J].北方园艺,2018(5):200-205.[25]韩小孩,张耀辉,孙福军,等.基于主成分分析的指标权重确定方法[J].兵器装备工程学报,2012,33(10):124-126.[26]ISLAM M R.Climate change,natural disasters and socioeconomic livelihood vulnerabilities:Migration decision among the Char Land People in Bangladesh[J].Social Indicators Research,2018,136(2):575-593.[27]谭灵芝,王国友,马长发.气候灾害对干旱区居民生计脆弱性影响研究：基于新疆和宁夏两省区的农户调查[J].经济与管理,2013(3):10-16.[28]SIMELTON E,FRASER E D G,TERMANSEN M,et al.Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability:an empirical analysis of the socio-economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961—2001)[J].Environmental Science & Policy,2009,12(4):438-452.[29]GBETIBOUO G A,RINGLER C,HASSAN R.Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability:An indicator approach[J].Natural Resources Forum,2010,34(3):175-187.[30]MUBAYA C P,MAFONGOYA P.Local-level climate change adaptation decision-making and livelihoods in semi-arid areas in Zimbabwe[J].Environment Development & Sustainability,2017,19(6):2377-2403.[31]郑艳,潘家华,谢欣露，等.基于气候灾害脆弱性的适应规划:一个福利经济学分析[J].经济研究,2016(2):140-144.[32]KRISTOPHER J,PREACHER,DEREK D,et al.Addressing moderated mediation hypotheses:Theory,methods,and prescriptions[J].Multivariate Behavioral Research,2007,42(1):285-227.[33]贾蕊,陆迁.土地流转促进黄土高原区农户水土保持措施的实施吗?基于集体行动中介作用与政府补贴调节效应的分析[J].中国农村经济,2018(6):38-54.[34]ZHAO X,LYNCH J G,CHEN Q.Reconsidering baron and kenny:Myths and truths about mediation analysis[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2010,37(2):197-206.[35]陈瑞,郑毓煌,刘文静.中介效应分析:原理、程序、Bootstrap方法及其应用[J].营销科学学报,2013(4):120-135.[36]THAMO T,ADDAI D,PANNELL D J,et al.Climate change impacts and farm-level adaptation:Economic analysis of a mixed cropping-livestock system[J].Agricultural Systems,2017,150:99-108.[37]XIE Y,ZHANG Y,LAN H,et al.Investigating long-term trends of climate change and their spatial variations caused by regional and local environments through data mining[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2018,28(6):802-818.[38]FENG Y,ZHANG X,ZHANG X,SHI P,et al.Livestock dynamic responses to climate change in alpine grasslands on the Northern Tibetan Plateau:Forage consumption and time-lag effects[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2017,8(1):88-96.[39]CLAY N.Integrating livelihoods approaches with research on development and climate change adaptation[J].Progress in Development Studies,2017,18(1):1-17.[40]祁新华,杨颖,金星星,等.农户对气候变化的感知与生计适应:基于中部与东部村庄的调查对比[J].生态学报,2017,37(1):286-293.[41]蔡文著,杨慧.农产品营销中农户感知心理契约对农户行为的影响:基于江西省农户调研的实证研究[J].经济管理,2013(2):165-174.[42]王伟新,祁春节.水果价格波动的生产者福利效应研究[J].价格月刊,2016(4):25-30.

Memo

Memo:
-
Last Update: 2019-06-03