Abstract

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Title:: Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Influence Factors of Apple Vulnerability Under Complementarity and Substitution

Author(s):: WU Xiaoping; SU Meirui; LIU Pengwei; HUAI Jianjun; (College of Economics and Management，Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100)

Keywords:: vulnerability; spatial correlation; spatial lag model; complementarity and substitution

Abstract:: In order to measure the impact of complementary and substitution indicators on the vulnerability of apple,the cross-sectional data of the main apple producing counties in Shaanxi Province in 2015 was selected,and a stepwise regression method to identify the complementarity and substitution relationship between capital indicators was used,and then the spatial lag model was used to analyze effects of complementary and substitution indicators on apple vulnerability.The results showed that under the constraint of spatial correlation,the vulnerability of apple in the neighboring county positively affected the vulnerability of the target county;the effective apple irrigated area,per capita disposable income,and per capita food production in the complementary indicators had a positive impact on vulnerability,and the rural durable consumer goods index had a negative impact on vulnerability;substitution indicators did not affect vulnerability.When formulating adaptation policies to address climate change,must not only consider the complementarity and substitution relationship between capitals,but also consider the spatial correlation;complementary indicators do not necessarily reduce vulnerability and can not be formulated when formulating adaptation policies to address climate change.Blindly increasing complementary livelihood capital to reduce vulnerability should appropriately increase livelihood capital based on the effect of capital on vulnerability.