Flowering Phenology Characteristics and Simulation ofLilacs Under Climate Change(PDF)

《北方园艺》[ISSN:1001-0009/CN:23-1247/S]

Issue:

2018年01

Page:

109-113

Research Field:

Publishing date:

Info

Title:

Flowering Phenology Characteristics and Simulation ofLilacs Under Climate Change

Author(s):

LI Rongping; ZHANG Xiaoyue; LI Jing

Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Science，Shenyang，Liaoning 110166

Keywords:

lilacs; flowering; phenology model; accumulated temperature

PACS:

-

DOI:

10.11937/bfyy.20171668

Abstract:

Accurate simulation of flowering and flowering time length of lilacs has important significance for avoid allergies and blooming flowers tourism.The applicability of the accumulated temperature model to lilacs flowering period was tested by using the simulated annealing algorithm.At the same time, the principle of statistical index of the accumulated temperature of lilacs different flowering period and its relationship with the temperature were discussed.The new simulation model for the end of lilacs bloom was established.The results showed that accumulated temperature with beyond 5 ℃ in the begin and mid of lilacs bloom had good stability, which were simulated using the accumulated temperature model.Accumulated temperature with beyond 5 ℃ in the end of lilacs bloom had big fluctuation, it had significantly positively relationship with average temperature in May, temperatures raise resulted in extend of lilac flowering stage.The begin and the end stage of lilacs bloom could be simulated well by accumulated temperature model, their highest explain rate was 45.1% and 26.2%, respectively.However, using accumulated temperature equation with 5 ℃ and the linear fitting equation of average temperature and accumulated temperature with 5 ℃, the end stage of lilacs bloom could be better simulated, the explain rate was 80.0%, significantly improved the simulation precision of the phenology.

References:

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