Analysis and Forecast of Vegetable Price Trend Based on Seasonal Index(PDF)

《北方园艺》[ISSN:1001-0009/CN:23-1247/S]

Issue:

2017年18

Page:

185-191

Research Field:

Publishing date:

Info

Title:

Analysis and Forecast of Vegetable Price Trend Based on Seasonal Index

Author(s):

ZHANG Biao1; ZHANG Lingxian2; 3; FU Zetian1; WANG Jieqiong1

1.College of Engineering，China Agricultural University，Beijing 100083；2.College of Information and Electrical Engineering，China Agricultural University，Beijing 100083；3.Key Laboratory of Agricultural Informationization Standardization，Ministry of Agriculture，Beijing 100083

Keywords:

Beijing; vegetables; price change; seasonal index; forecasting model

PACS:

-

DOI:

10.11937/bfyy.20170403

Abstract:

Based on the seasonal index，vegetable prices and the trend of fluctuations in the market price were analyzed，and the model of vegetable price forecasting was built.The results showed that the price and amount overall of vegetables were a rising trend，and had significant seasonal characteristics.Average prices of fruits vegetables，leafy vegetables and root vegetables showed rising trend，and the amount listed on the overall trend remained stable upward trend with obvious seasonal change.The price of vegetables would continue to grow slowly with seasonal changes in the coming one to two years，and the price change was not dominated by the single season factors，but also by other factors and random factors，especially the leafy vegetables.

References:

[1]方燕,宋建元.我国农产品价格波动的实证分析:基于HP滤波和协整检验[J].价格理论与实践,2013(6):62-63.