Vegetables Price Combination Forecasting Based on PSO-BP and RBF Neural Network(PDF)

《北方园艺》[ISSN:1001-0009/CN:23-1247/S]

Title:: Vegetables Price Combination Forecasting Based on PSO-BP and RBF Neural Network

Author(s):: YE Lu; LI Yuping; QIN Xiaoli; LIANG Weihong; SONG Qidao; LIU Yanqun; (Key Lab of Tropical Crops Information Technology Application Research of Hainan Province，Institute of Scientific and Technical Information，Chinese Academy of Tropical Agriculture Sciences，Danzhou，Hainan 571737)

Keywords:: PSO; BP neural network; RBF neural network; vegetables price; linear combination forecasting

Abstract:: In order to predict vegetables price accurately，117 groups 2012—2015 green pepper and related factors price in danzhou city were selected as the sample data，of which 100 groups were training data and 17 groups were test data，the PSO-BP forecasting model and the RBF network forecasting model concerning vegetables retail price were set up separately，and then the linear combination forecasting model was set up on the basis of these two models.The results indicated that these two single forecasting models’ effect was well，and two models had their own advantages in different evaluation index.The linear combination of the prediction results of these two models could make single model’s advantage complementary，whose fitting effect was better than the single forecasting model.

[1]李干琼,许世卫,李哲敏,等.农产品市场价格超短期预测研究:基于西红柿日批发价格的现代时间序列法建模[J].华中农业大学学报(社科版),2010(6):40-45.

[2]张劲珊,谢祥添.基于人工神经网络蔬菜价格预测[J].江苏商论,2011(4):47-48,60.

[3]孙素芬,罗长寿.基于RBF神经网络的蔬菜价格预报研究[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(28):269-273.

[4]罗长寿.基于神经网络与遗传算法的蔬菜市场价格预测方法研究[J].科技通报,2011,27(6):881-885,894.

[5]崔利国,李哲敏.不同优化方法的混沌RBF神经网络模型对大白菜短期价格预测的结果比较[J].系统科学与数学,2013,33(1):45-54.

[6]王小川,史峰,郁磊,等.MATLAB神经网络43个案例分析[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,2013.

[7]王亮,张宏伟,岳琳,等.PSO-BP模型在城市用水量短期预测中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2007(9):165-170.

[8]赵振江.基于PSO-BP神经网络的网络流量预测与研究[J].计算机应用与软件,2009,26(1):218-221.

[9]张志政,周威.基于PSO-BP神经网络的参考作物蒸腾量预测[J].节水灌溉,2014,26(11):87-90,95.

[10]闫纪如.粒子群优化的神经网络在交通流预测中的应用[D].沈阳:东北大学,2013:36-47.

[11]张德丰.MATLAB神经网络编程[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2011.

[12]丁咏梅.我国股票价格的组合预测[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2005.

Last Update: 2015-12-29